Does tolling payoff add up?

Gov. Gina M. Raimondo’s plan to raise $100 million a year for bond payments by tolling the largest trucks that travel the Ocean State is largely calculated on estimated truck volume and comparisons with other states that trucking representatives say might not apply to Rhode Island.

The state’s prediction that just 25 percent of truckers would circumvent Rhode Island roadways should the proposed $40 to $50 in tolls be implemented has been questioned by the regional trucking industry.

Marie Aberger, Raimondo’s press secretary, wrote in an email that the 25 percent calculation is “a higher diversion estimate than other states” have used to project tolling impacts. But she acknowledged diversion estimates could change as “locations, rates and truck-count analysis are further refined.”

She referenced the New Jersey Turnpike, which doubled its truck tolls in 2012. Aberger said a forecasted diversion rate of 17 percent ended up only being about 12 percent.

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But comparing Rhode Island with roadways in other states is like comparing apples to oranges, say trucking groups opposed to Raimondo’s plan.

The New York Times in 2012 tried to quantify what it would take to circumvent the 53 percent New Jersey Turnpike toll hike. A reporter traveling from East Brunswick, N.J., on the Turnpike arrived at the set destination in Jersey City 20 minutes and 4 seconds before a second reporter who departed from the same place at the same time, but traveled a different route.

The second reporter saved $6.65 on the 28-mile trip, but lost time.

Stephen Wright, CEO and president of Lincoln-based NOW Delivery and vice chair of the Rhode Island Trucking Association, says Rhode Island’s situation is different.

“If you’re going to tell me that [only] 25 percent of truckers are going to avoid $100 [$50 each way], I disagree,” Wright said.

Wright points out that if a trucker is traveling north on I-95 in Connecticut he or she could get onto I-395 North, merge onto the Massachusetts Turnpike East and reconnect with I-95 North in the Bay State effectively avoiding Rhode Island altogether.

The roundabout route would cost the trucker $7.80 in tolls each way, Wright said, adding that the distance is shorter.

“He’s going to pay [less money] and go four less miles by driving up I-395,” Wright said.

Peter Alviti Jr., director of the R.I. Department of Transportation, projects the state would collect about $100 million in revenue per year tolling 17-22 bridges, but how the numbers add up is unclear because the DOT hasn’t disclosed which bridges would have tolls and at what cost.

The new toll revenue would go toward paying back a $700 million bond that’s part of Raimondo’s proposed 10-year, $4.8 billion “RhodeWorks” infrastructure plan.

One thing that’s certain, says Darrin Roth, vice president of highway policy at the American Trucking Association: The Massachusetts Turnpike becomes more viable when truckers stop saving money traveling through Rhode Island. •

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