Lardaro: Third quarter ends on positive note

 / COURTESY LEONARD LARDARO
/ COURTESY LEONARD LARDARO

SOUTH KINGSTOWN – On the heels of a healthy August, September’s economic momentum in Rhode Island fared almost as well, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro.
His monthly Current Conditions Index registered 83, only nine points lower than August’s 92, which was the highest indexed value since December 2012.
CCI measurements higher than 50 suggest economic growth; a value below 50 indicates contraction.
Combined, the two months’ positive figures reflect an accelerated pace of recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2015, and improved further in the third quarter, Lardaro said.
“Rhode Island’s September economic performance, although not as impressive as that of August, was the second best we have seen in some time,” Lardaro reported.
Ten of the 12 indicators improved, including a noticeable increase of 22.7 percent in single-use permits for new home construction, compared with last September, and a slight increase of four-tenths of a percent in total manufacturing hours.
Benefit exhaustions dropped by an “amazing” 35.6 percent, Lardaro said, while new claims, a labor market indicator of layoffs, fell by 12 percent, sustaining a downward trend.
The two indicators that failed to improve are government employment, which dipped by eight-tenths of a percent, and the manufacturing wage, which declined by 3.3 percent.
Other improvements included U.S. consumer sentiment, which rose 2.9 percent; employment service jobs, increasing by 2.1 percent; private service-producing employment, increasing by 1.3 percent; retail sales, increasing by three-tenths of a percent; labor force, which rose by 1.1 percent, and the unemployment rate, which dipped by 1.8 percentage points to 5.4 percent in September.
“As this recovery continues to become more broadly based, last year’s tepid 1.2 percent growth rate appears to be well behind us,” Lardaro said.
He also noted, however, that recently improving economic momentum is a byproduct of “national and neighboring-state momentum” and needs to be internally generated in Rhode Island in order to last.

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