In his forecast for Rhode Island's economy, Bryant University economist Edinaldo Tebaldi cuts right to the chase:
"Rhode Island's economy has sustained its recovery, but it also displays troubling signs," he said.
His report, prepared for the New England Economic Partnership, and condensed opposite this page, paints a picture we all have seen too often in the last decade.
Rhode Island was the first New England state to go into recession and was the last to leave. The unemployment rate spiked to the top of the nation, but has fallen to a level now that is only slightly higher than the national rate. Economic growth even before the Great Recession was weak, and since then has remained behind the region and the nation.
Mr. Tebaldi's predictions for the future, through 2018, are not overwhelmingly positive either. Real GDP growth in the Ocean State through 2018 is expected to remain below New England's growth rate as a whole as well as below the nation's rate. Job growth will be modest, but more concerning is the fact that expected job growth is going to occur in some low-wage areas – the Leisure & Hospitality sector – and will be very small is some high-wage sectors – Construction and Manufacturing. In fact, employment in the Construction, Manufacturing and Government sectors will remain below their pre-recession levels through 2018, a full decade after it began in Rhode Island.
The state's public- and private-sector leaders have made the case for the need to jump-start Rhode Island's economy, but at least to the professional forecasters, it's not moving the needle enough. •