Scare tactics and obesity

Since 1960, a lot fewer Americans have been dying of tobacco and car accidents, and a lot more have been dying of diseases related to obesity. That is the conclusion of a new study by Harvard economist David Cutler and National Bureau of Economic Research scholar Susan Stewart.

The U.S. obesity problem is staggering. In 1960, 14 percent of the population was obese; in 2010 it was 36 percent.

That’s old news by now. But the comparison with smoking is very interesting. It tells us a lot about why these two public health trends have gone in opposite directions, and how the obesity problem might be defeated.

The fight against smoking might be the biggest public health success story of the past half century. The percentage of Americans who smoke fell from about 40 percent in the mid-20th century to about 20 percent today.

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So what did the trick? Well, surprisingly, mandatory labeling – the good old surgeon general’s warning – might have played a role. Recent research has shown that a combination of graphic warning labels and antismoking ad campaigns do have the effect of reducing smoking. Warning labels appear to have had an effect in Canada too.

That’s surprising. We’re taught to believe that prices, not behavioral “nudges,” are the most important factor in behavior.

Another factor in the victory against tobacco might be role modeling. In recent decades, far fewer movie characters smoke. A 2012 surgeon general’s report finds that smoking in the movies has a big effect on teen smoking. In addition, the recent spate of widespread bans on smoking in public places surely had an effect, both by making cigarette consumption less fun, and by establishing a no-tobacco norm.

So how do we use these behavioral solutions to fight the scourge of obesity? We might want to focus on food-consumption habits. Perhaps it’s time for the surgeon general to put scary warning labels on sugary and fatty foods. And perhaps it’s time for Hollywood studios to consciously focus on depicting characters eating small portions and healthy meals.

Behavioral economics cut smoking, and Americans are healthier, happier people because of it. We should try the same tactics against unhealthy eating. •

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