It’s a parent’s nightmare: shelling out big money for college, then seeing the graduate unable to land a job that requires high-level skills. This situation may be growing more common, unfortunately, because the demand for cognitive skills associated with higher education, after rising sharply until 2000, has since been in decline.
So concludes new research by economists Paul Beaudry and David Green of the University of British Columbia and Benjamin Sand of York University in Toronto. This reversal in demand has caused high-skilled workers to accept lower-level jobs, pushing lower-skilled people even further down the occupational ladder or out of work altogether. If the researchers are right (which is not yet clear), the consequences are huge and troubling.
Let’s start with some basic facts. In 1970, only one in 100 taxi drivers and chauffeurs in the United States had a college degree, according to an analysis of labor statistics by Ohio University’s Richard Vedder, Christopher Denhart and Jonathan Robe. Today, 15 of 100 do.
Similarly, in 1970, only about 2 percent of firefighters had a college degree, compared with more than 15 percent now, Vedder and his colleagues found. And, according to research by economists Paul Harrington and Andrew Sum of Northeastern University, about 1 in 4 bartenders has some sort of degree.
Beaudry and his colleagues say that such change has been driven by a decline in the demand for highly skilled work – the opposite of the conventional wisdom about such demand. The employment rate in “cognitive” occupations – managerial, professional and technical jobs – increased markedly from 1980 to 2000, their research found, but it has since stagnated, even as the supply of skilled workers has continued to grow.
What has changed? One possibility, as I’ve previously written, is that the effects of a globalizing workforce are creeping up the income scale. Anything that can be digitized can be done either by computer or by workers abroad. While the “winner take all” phenomenon may still mean extremely high returns for workers at the very top, that may be relevant for a shrinking share of college graduates.
Whatever the explanation, the Beaudry team argues that an excess of skilled workers has led them into the “routine” job market – such as sales and clerical jobs – reducing wages there and pushing less skilled workers into “manual” jobs in construction, farming and so on.
What’s puzzling here is that it seems inconsistent with evidence that the wage premium enjoyed by college graduates has persisted. For example, a recent paper by Philip Oreopoulos and Uros Petronijevic of the University of Toronto found that the earnings premium for college graduates has risen substantially over the past several decades.
The still-strong earnings premium strongly suggests that the demand for skill has not collapsed. After all, if cognitive skills became less valuable in the labor market, wouldn’t one expect wages to fall more for college graduates than for others?
Not necessarily, Beaudry and his colleagues argue. They find that while wages for jobs requiring cognitive skills have declined, the shift of high-skilled workers into those jobs has depressed wages for manual workers even more.
That’s a provocative argument. Still, it may be that the Beaudry team’s results are sensitive to the way they define “cognitive” jobs and “manual” ones. Also, it’s not entirely clear how much the recent recession has influenced their results.
In any case, the findings will do little to calm the nerves of graduates who are anxious to find jobs.
The cold comfort I can offer is this: Going to college may still be worthwhile – if not to be sure of qualifying for skilled jobs, then at least to avoid the even worse prospects of those who don’t get a degree. •
Peter Orszag is vice chairman of corporate and investment banking, and chairman of the financial strategy and solutions group at Citigroup Inc., and a former director of the Office of Management and Budget in the Obama administration. He is a Bloomberg View columnist.
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