Lardaro: Rhode Island’s recovery reaches one-year mark

UNIVERSITY OF Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro said his Current Conditions Index was 67 in February, the same as it was in January.For a larger version of this image, <a href=CLICK HERE. / " title="UNIVERSITY OF Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro said his Current Conditions Index was 67 in February, the same as it was in January.For a larger version of this image, CLICK HERE. /"/>
UNIVERSITY OF Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro said his Current Conditions Index was 67 in February, the same as it was in January.For a larger version of this image, CLICK HERE. /

SOUTH KINGSTOWN – Rhode Island’s current economic recovery reached the one-year mark in February, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro.

Lardaro’s Current Conditions Index was 67 in February, as eight of the 12 indicators improved.

The index tracks the state’s economic performance through national and local economic indicators; a reading below 50 indicates economy contraction while above it signifies expansion.

Although 67 is an expansion value, Lardaro noted that he was “somewhat” disappointed with the value based on the revised data for the second half of 2010, following the U.S. Department of Labor’s rebenchmarking last month.

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The index was also 67 in January, falling from a December value of 83. The index reached a high of 83 three times in 2010: July, August and December.

“On numerous occasions over the past few years, I wondered if and when I might ever be able to label a value like 67 a disappointment. Happily, that day has finally arrived!” said Lardaro.

The four factors contributing negatively, or neutrally, to the index were: government employment, single-unit permits, retail sales and labor force.

Among the eight factors that improved, the “star performer” was the employment service jobs factor, which has improved for the past 15 consecutive months on top of a 7.4 percent gain one year ago.

Also improving were: U.S. consumer sentiment, private service-producing employment, total manufacturing hours, manufacturing wage, benefits exhaustions, new claims and the unemployment rate.

Lardaro called the improvement of eight indicators “healthy” and said the state’s cyclical momentum continued to be “fairly strong.”

“Our main problem is the persistence of a host of structural weaknesses that offset a good deal of our cyclical gains. If we don’t attack these now, we will have lost a golden opportunity to be proactive,” he said.

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