Traffic is so ubiquitous in U.S. cities that until recently, imagining urban life without it meant looking to other nations for examples. Then, in 2020, COVID-19 closures and lockdowns took drivers off the roads.
The main impacts are clear. First, public transit ridership plummeted by 80%, leaving mainly lower-income workers in jobs declared essential riding buses, subways and commuter trains.
Second, private vehicular traffic declined by more than 50% in most metro areas, and by more than 75% in some tech-oriented cities such as San Francisco, where more people could work from home. With less traffic, cities became quieter, less polluted.
Third, quiet roads provided an opportunity to reimagine and create less-car-centric cities. From Boston to Los Angeles, street eateries blossomed. Diners, pedestrians and cyclists reclaimed outdoor spaces.
Public transportation finances took a big hit during the pandemic as ridership shrank. Many cities responded by reducing bus and train service, eliminating routes and laying off employees. Whether urban public transportation can recover over the longer term is a critical question.
So far, surveys suggest that more-affluent riders are less willing to return, especially if they can work productively from home. There is still a lingering sense that public transportation, and indeed all ride-sharing, is riskier than walking, cycling or personal auto travel.
The coming months could well be a key pivotal point.
Any longer-term declines in the quality of public transportation will be disproportionately shouldered by lower-income workers, who have less choice and will be forced to navigate more-expensive, less-reliable services. The ripple effects on access to employment opportunities, commuting times and general quality of life could be severe, adding yet another layer to mounting inequality in U.S. society.
Public transportation was underfunded in the U.S. before 2020, and the pandemic only added to these fiscal woes. However, the scale of the current crisis may be changing attitudes, especially at the federal level.
Public transportation received a fiscal boost from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act, known as the CARES Act, that Congress passed in March 2020. And President Joe Biden has proposed $85 billion for capital investments in public transit in his infrastructure plan.
The details of potential investments are still taking shape, and much depends on congressional negotiations. But although the traditional American road and car mentality remains strong, the pandemic may have made clear that urban public transportation has a vital social and economic role in making cities fairer and more efficient.
Cities traditionally plagued with gridlock, such as Boston, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., all saw less-congested roads. But it’s not clear whether this will be a lasting change or a short-term response.
By mid-June 2020, while many states and cities were still under COVID-19 restrictions, traffic had rebounded across the country to almost 90% of pre-pandemic levels.
Perhaps the most encouraging traffic-related news is that many cities are forging ahead with plans to reduce car travel and make streets safer for pedestrians.
Many cities are now implementing initiatives such as free public transportation, protected bike lanes, bike-sharing initiatives, congestion pricing, regular street closures, priority bus lanes, quiet streets and reduced traffic speeds.
But there are competing interests and political counterpressures. One survey of mayors found that many endorsed changes to street space, but relatively few were planning to make them permanent. City leaders realize that powerful economic interests want consumers and workers to have downtown access by private car.
The coming months could well be a key pivotal point. The pandemic gave Americans a tantalizing glimpse of what less-car-oriented cities would look like. The pandemic saw the reclamation of urban streets for public use, the emergence of a less-car-centric city and the reimagining of a safer, slower, quieter city with streets shared among a variety of users. But many interests want a quick return to the status quo.
The outcome will depend on how effectively urban dwellers and advocacy groups make their case for more-people-centered city streets.
John Rennie Short is a professor at the University of Maryland Baltimore County’s School of Public Policy. Distributed by The Associated Press.