SOUTH KINGSTOWN – University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro called a 17-point slip in the Current Conditions Index to 75 in March from 92 in February a “disappointment” when the report was released Monday.
In the report, Lardaro said: “Rhode Island ended the first quarter of 2018 on somewhat of a precautionary note. My characterization of our state’s economic performance last month as being ‘very promising’ might have been premature.”
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Published monthly, the CCI measures 12 economic indicators that are representative of the economic climate of the state. A value above 50 implies economic expansion while a value less than 50 indicates contraction.
In the March 2018 CCI report, nine of the 12 indicators reported improvement.
- Employment service jobs, a leading labor market indicator, jumped 3.8 percent in March.
- The timeliest measure of layoffs, new claims dipped by “a healthy” 17.4 percent in the third month of 2018, said Lardaro.
- Increasing by 4.4 percent in March, and ending a two-month consecutive loss streak, was U.S. consumer sentiment.
- There was a 4.2 percent jump in retail sales in March. “It is one of the more critical statistics we need to pay close attention to over the coming months,” said Lardaro in the report.
- A 0.3 percent rise was measured in government employment in March.
- Private service-producing employment saw a 1.5 percent gain to end the first quarter of 2018.
- Benefit exhaustions, which reflects longer-term unemployment, fell by 6.1 percent.
- There was a 2.4 percent bump in the manufacturing wage in March.
- The state’s labor force ended the first quarter of 2018 with a 0.9 percent increase.
Among the declines was the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, which returned to 4.5 percent after being revised to 4.6 percent in February.
Reflective of new home construction, single-unit permits declined by 18.4 percent in March – its fourth decline in five months.
Total manufacturing hours, a proxy for manufacturing output and what Lardaro called “an important part of Rhode Island’s strength over the past two years,” dipped 0.9 percent in March.
Eleven of 12 indicators in the February CCI report showed improvement.
Emily Gowdey-Backus is a staff writer for PBN. You can follow her on Twitter @FlashGowdey or contact her via email, gowdey-backus@pbn.com.
