CRMC plans for expected rise in sea level by 2100

The R.I. Coastal Resources Management Council is forecasting that the sea level will rise here by 3 to 5 feet by 2100. It’s an estimate they’ll use for coastal planning and development, though even the CRMC acknowledges that some scientists would consider that estimate conservative.
“There’s a great deal of uncertainty concerning sea level rise,” said Grover Fugate, executive director of CRMC.
Last Tuesday, CRMC and the University of Rhode Island Coastal Institute presented to the general public their thoughts on climate change and the Rhode Island coast. The meeting was held at the Towers in Narragansett. On both sides of the Towers, large windows give way to views of Rhode Island Sound, the Narragansett town beach and Beavertail Lighthouse off the tip of Jamestown.
In attendance were academics, coastal engineers, property owners, business developers, many geologists and the general public.
“No one really knows the answer to the question: Where will tomorrow’s shoreline be?” said Janet Freedman, a senior CRMC coastal geologist.
With a power-point presentation, Freedman showed us predication models of different scenarios of sea level rise. All of the scenarios, from the 3-foot rise to the 5-foot, basically put much of the state’s “high risk” areas underwater, areas such as Ocean Road, which ran under the feet of attendees at the Towers, and Charlestown Beach, Quonochontaug Beach and Weekapaug.
“Sea level rise is a consequence of global climate change,” said Freedman. “Can we keep up with sea level rise? Can roads be moved or elevated, can beaches be saved?
“There are many unknowns about the rate the sea will rise. But what we are finding is that the rate has been accelerating,” she said. “Much of the unknown depends on the Greenland ice sheet and western Antarctica. These two ice sheets, if they were to melt, would cause the sea level to rise 20 feet.”
Through mathematical models and historical data, CRMC came up with the range of 3 to 5 feet. This is what the CRMC will use when it comes to coastal planning for everything from houses, to roads to water and sewage systems.
Some of the immediate concerns that CRMC pointed out are places like the Newport reservoirs, beach erosion across the south shore and the Providence waterfront.
“The Newport reservoirs give 5,000 residents their water. These reservoirs – if we see a strong storm surge – will be filled with salt water. As sea level rises this problem is going to be exacerbated,” she said.
One finding with climate change is that the number of storms is increasing, she said. Storm surge will come further and further up the beach. “We have to plan ahead for this to happen,” she said.
After Janet Freedman spoke, Fugate took the stage.
“I wish I had answers but really all I have [are] questions,” he said.
Fugate’s talk focused on implications to landowners and fisheries. “Right now, Providence and East Providence, Cranston and Pawtucket are all looking at new investment projects within the Providence waterfront.” Fugate put a slide up that showed Fields Point with a 3- foot rise, then a 5-foot rise.
“What are the ramifications of sea level rise for this development? There’s a lot of area here that’s at threat,” he said.
Fugate also noted, “Rhode Island is between two zones—north and south. These are natural borders to animals, those that like warm water stay below us and those that like cooler water stay above us. If the sea temperature continues to rise then species like the lobster [an animal that likes cool water] will be stressed in Rhode Island waters. The lobster fishery isn’t doing well in our state. Warming water may well be a factor. In a decade or so our lobster industry may be all over.”
Fugate then brought up a slide showing Waterplace Park in Providence. “A 3-foot rise affects all of Providence – but a 5-foot rise has a tremendous impact on the city. Fire water would disappear because the paths and bridges along Waterplace Park would be under water.”
So what needs to happen?
“First we need to get away from the carbon fuel base,” he said. “Then for sea level management we need to start thinking about moving structures, retreating back from the existing shoreline. We’ll also need protection – beaches and dunes and sea walls. We’ll have to learn how to adapt to all this, upgrading roads, bridges, water systems – the infrastructure – costs big money, and that will be a problem, as will the legal framework.” &#8226