Whatever your opinion is about the health of Rhode Island’s economy, there’s data to support it.
If you think there’s cause for celebration, avoiding to this point what a year ago looked like a near-certain recession is a good place to start. And many elected officials in this camp also like to tout unemployment remaining near historical lows.
Yes, there are hopeful post-pandemic signs but plenty of other conflicting data too, including a workforce that hasn’t grown since 2019.
Economist and University of Rhode Island professor Leonard Lardaro continues to be perplexed by mixed results in monthly data he studies. December showed an economy in expansion. Yet underlying economic indicators suggest that may be mostly because of federal stimulus money continuing to boost consumer spending and hiring.
At PBN’s recent Economic Trends Summit, Thomas Tzitzouris, Strategas Research Partners’ head of fixed income research, said Rhode Island’s economy has narrowed the historical gap with its neighbors. That means we may no longer be a leading indicator for everyone else of a coming recession.
But he says small-business growth remains a weak spot that could keep the state from quickly moving out of the next downturn.
Little wonder few respondents to PBN’s recent winter business survey are looking to expand. And until they are ready to invest and again bet on themselves, the state will excessively rely on outside economic stimuli, such as federal pandemic aid that is quickly running out.