ISO New England head: Harsh winter weather puts regional grid at risk

ISO NEW ENGLAND PRESIDENT AND CEO Gordon Van Welie warned that severe cold snaps this winter could put the region's power grid at risk during a virtual presentation to The New England Council on Thursday.

PROVIDENCE – Few things are as uncertain as the weather.

And while he’s no meteorologist, Gordon Van Welie knows that national forecasts calling for a mild New England winter could be upended by a sudden polar vortex that puts the region’s power supply in jeopardy.

“If the weather stays mild, we’ll be fine,” Van Welie, president and CEO of ISO New England Inc., said in a virtual presentation to The New England Council on Thursday. “It’s really what happens if the weather doesn’t stay mild.”

The peak demand that occurs during severe cold snaps or storms is an infrequent occurrence but one that, without protections, can be catastrophic, Van Welie warned. And multiple cold stretches that deplete fuel sources can create a lasting shortage to which the supply chain just can’t catch up.

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“It’s a bit like driving down the highway and you’re having to take your foot off the gas to try and be more efficient for a long period of time, rather than just getting from one day to the next,” Van Welie.

Van Welie referenced events during the winter of 2013-2014 as an example of these challenges. And with 2,000 megawatts less power now available due to retired energy plants, the consequences would be even worse.

The pandemic has also magnified the problem. Pricing disparities for liquified natural gas means New England loses out to European and Asian buyers who will pay more. Even if the region can buy LNG, a shortage of truck drivers mean the fuel may not arrive in time.

“Insufficient energy storage and a fragile fuel supply chain are really going to make our life difficult moving forward if we don’t address this problem,” Van Welie said.

The solutions are as complex and multifaceted as the problem itself, requiring a combination of government policies, money and planning, including for the move away from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources.

State policies put New England on the forefront of the green energy transition, with more than 60,300 megawatts of renewable energy – two-thirds of which will come from major offshore wind projects – slated to enter the grid in the coming years, according to an ISO New England study published in September. States’ emphasis on energy efficiency upgrades works in New England’s favor.

But the transition away from fossil fuels will not be easy, or quick, Van Welie said. While New England has cut its use of crude oil and coal for electricity production from 40% to less than 1% over the last 20 years, much of that has been replaced with natural gas, which as of 2020 comprised over half of the region’s energy supply.

ISO New England is working to help the region through this transition, including through its Future Grid Initiative project that launched earlier this year. The two-part project aims to understand the reliability of the grid by 2040 and to identify market changes that can help transition to more reliable, and cleaner, power sources.

Meanwhile, Van Welie touted the money that will be available for energy projects through the $1 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, as well as potentially the Build Back Better Act still making its way through the U.S. Senate.

“It’s very exciting that Congress is making this kind of seed money available,” he said. 

But, he added, states still need to plan ahead to make the most of those federal dollars.

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