Home Economy Economic Activity Lardaro: Concerns about R.I.’s economy remain despite strong April performance

Lardaro: Concerns about R.I.’s economy remain despite strong April performance

By

PBN Staff

-

06/16/2025

Lardaro-1-1-1-1 — CAUSE FOR concern remains even though Rhode Island’s economy bounced back in April from its horrible performance in March, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. / PBN FILE PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO

PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island’s economy bounced back in April after its horrible performance in March but concerns remain, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index had a neutral value of 50 in April, a strong improvement from 16 in March that also

Already a Subscriber? Log in

To Continue Reading This Article

Become a Providence Business News subscriber and get immediate access to all of our premier content and much more.

Learn More and Become a Subscriber

Critical RI business news and analysis updated daily.
1 year of print (26 issues).
Unlimited access to all subscriber only content on our website, on any device.
Free email alerts.
Annual Book of Lists Print Edition.
All special issues produced during subscription term.

Click Here to purchase a paywall bypass link for this article

PBN Branded Content

Let’s Save Big with Rhode Island Energy Efficiency Programs

Nestled alongside the Blackstone River in Pawtucket, RI, in a historic National Heritage Corridor that…

Learn More

No posts to display

LEAVE A REPLY Cancel reply

PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island’s economy bounced back in April after its horrible performance in March but concerns remain, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index had a neutral value of 50 in April, a strong improvement from 16 in March that also was the state’s worst economic performance since the Great Recession in 2008. A CCI value above 50 indicates an economic expansion while a value below 50 indicates economic contraction. “The CCI has been at a neutral or a contraction value for every month since December. More troubling is the fact that all of the 2025 CCI’s values have lagged their corresponding values from a year ago,” Lardaro said. “The April value of 50 provides us with a reprieve from the horrendous March data. More importantly, it raises the possibility that Rhode Island is not currently in the early stages of a recession but might instead be on the precipice of a recession. We'll have to wait to see exactly where we are.” Retail sales rose sharply in April, 7.4%, continuing its yearly uptrend. Lardaro said “front loading,” where companies try to increase their imports and stock before Trump’s tariffs come into effect, may have contributed to that sector’s strong month. “I suspect it would have been an improving value this month in spite of the tariff war,” Lardaro said. “The question moving forward is how much this month’s strength will 'steal' sales from the upcoming months. If the national economy is any guide, that will be a factor.” Employment service jobs also rose sharply in April, 6.4%, ending a long string of declines. “While these two indicator performances were significant, strong performances among the remaining CCI indicators were largely absent,” Lardaro said. “For now, at least, it appears that the horrendous March data was a fluke. But only time will tell.” Manufacturing employment remained unchanged in April, while the workweek was shorter, Lardaro said. Manufacturing hours fell 2.1% and manufacturing wages increased 2.5%. "This is not a positive sign moving forward, as that suggests falling employment in the coming months," Lardaro said. Rhode Island’s labor force participation rate and the employment rate each fell year over year in April. Lardaro said as a result the “participation-adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.3%, well above the official rate of 4.9%, which given the declining participation rate and labor force trends, lacks credibility as an indicator of Rhode Island’s labor market slack.” New claims, which reflect layoffs, rose 23.3%, for its eighth overall increase in the last 12 months. Benefit exhaustions, which indicate long-term unemployment, fell 3.6% in April following a sharp rise in March. Government employment rose 1.1%, following a “blip” decline in March, as federal government employment actually rose slightly, local government employment was constant but state government employment increased, Lardaro said. Single-unit permits, reflective of new home construction, fell 7.5% for a second consecutive month and a fourth time in the last six months. Year-over-year CCI indicators in April:

Employment-service jobs increased by 6.4%.

Government employment increased by 1.1%.

Labor force decreased by 0.5%.

Total manufacturing hours decreased by 2.1%.

Manufacturing wages increased by 2.5%.

New unemployment claims increased by 23.3%.

Private-service-producing employment increased by 0.5%.

Retail sales increased by 7.3%.

Single-unit permits decreased by 7.5%.

Unemployment benefit exhaustions decreased by 3.6%.

Unemployment rate increased by 0.7%.