Home Economy Economic Activity Lardaro: Data still signals recession in R.I.

Lardaro: Data still signals recession in R.I.

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PBN Staff

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02/16/2026

RHODE ISLAND closed 2025 with another month of economic contraction, signaling an ongoing recession, says University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro. / PBN FILE PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO — RHODE ISLAND closed 2025 with another month of economic contraction, signaling an ongoing recession, says University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro. PBN FILE PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO

PROVIDENCE – The state’s economy still has the look and feel of a recession, failing to build momentum in December after hopeful signs of recovery the previous month, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The Current Conditions Index for December fell to 33,

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PROVIDENCE – The state's economy still has the look and feel of a recession, failing to build momentum in December after hopeful signs of recovery the previous month, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The Current Conditions Index for December fell to 33, with four of the 12 indicators improved. In the previous month, the index had a value of 42, same as October. A CCI value above 50 indicates an economic expansion compared to the previous year while a value below 50 indicates economic contraction. Lardaro noted the highest index value in 2025 was 50, meaning there was no month when a majority of CCI indicators improved relative to a year ago. “That’s what a recession looks like: The inability to mount strong and sustained periods of momentum, which leads to the set of CCI indicators unable to break beyond 50,” he said. Lardaro did point out that retail sales have “held up quite well. And surprisingly, Rhode Island’s manufacturing sector, in terms of total manufacturing hours, the most cyclical part of our state’s economy, has been improving since May. Better news yet, new claims, a leading labor market indicator, has improved for the last two months, its best performance in a year. “But sustained strength in any of the other indicators has been all too infrequent,” he said. He said it is possible that revised labor market data for 2025 will show the state’s economic data for the year is not as bad as it now looks. “But judging by revisions to the national data, which were very negative, things here might remain where they are now.” he said. Year-over-year CCI indicators in December: • Employment-service jobs decreased by 1%. • Government employment decreased by 0.5%. • Labor force decreased by 0.2%. • Total manufacturing hours increased by 4.5%. • Manufacturing wages were unchanged. • New unemployment claims decreased by 8.6%. • Private-service-producing employment decreased by 0.5%. • Retail sales increased by 4.9%. • Single-unit permits decreased by 19.3%. • Unemployment benefit exhaustions increased by 3.9%. • Unemployment rate decreased by 0.2%. • U.S. consumer sentiment decreased 28.9%.