Home Economy Economic Activity Lardaro: R.I. economy shows progress in July

Lardaro: R.I. economy shows progress in July

By

PBN Staff

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09/15/2025

P4JNb9Xa-Lardaro-1-1-1-1 — LEONARD LARDARO, University of Rhode Island professor and economist, said Rhode Island's economy had a strong performance in July, according to his latest monthly Current Conditions Index report. / PBN FILE PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO

PROVIDENCE – The state’s economy had a strong performance in July, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index had a neutral value 50 in July, an improvement from 32 posted in June, Lardaro said. A CCI value above 50 indicates an economic

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PROVIDENCE – The state’s economy had a strong performance in July, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index had a neutral value 50 in July, an improvement from 32 posted in June, Lardaro said. A CCI value above 50 indicates an economic expansion while a value below 50 indicates economic contraction. “Not all 50s for the CCI are the same,” Lardaro said. "As 50s go, this month's performance was fairly strong and a bit encouraging. Even though half of the CCI indicators failed to improve relative to their values a year ago, those that did improve displayed very positive momentum, especially as a few indicators this month reversed several-month declines.” Lardaro is unsure if Rhode Island’s economy is in a recession due to tariff uncertainty. “Once these tariff-related uncertainties are removed, however, I continue to believe that there will be an uptick in the pace of economic activity, both in Rhode Island and for the U.S.,” Lardaro said. “Continuing with the wrestling analogy from last month, Rhode Island’s shoulder was just on the mat for a two count, but this month we managed to pull up just before the final count.” Six of the 12 CCI indicators improved year over year in July. New claims, which Lardaro says is the timeliest measure of layoffs, saw its first year-over- year improvement in 2025. Employment service jobs rose annually for the fourth consecutive month while total manufacturing hours saw its third year over year increase after five months of declines. However, manufacturing wages fell for the fifth time in seven months. Two leading CCI indicators, U.S consumer sentiment and single-unit permits also fell in July. U.S consumer sentiment dropped for the seventh-consecutive month while single-unit permits declined at a double-digit rate in July, its fifth consecutive decline. Labor Force fell year over year for the fifth month in a row, however, Lardaro adds that the sector rose slightly on a monthly basis. Private service providing employment rose year over year in July, breaking above its recent string of sub-one-percent growth rates, and government employment fell for a second month. Year-over-year CCI indicators in July:

Employment-service jobs increased by 1.1%.

Government employment decreased by 1.3%.

Labor force decreased by 0.7%.

Total manufacturing hours increased by 1.5%.

Manufacturing wages increased by 4%.

New unemployment claims decreased by 18.6%.

Private-service-producing employment increased by 1.3%.

Retail sales increased by 5%.

Single-unit permits decreased by 21.8%.

Unemployment benefit exhaustions decreased by 6.5%.

Unemployment rate increased by 0.4%.

U.S. consumer sentiment decreased 7.1%.