Home Economy Economic Activity Lardaro: R.I.’s economic momentum showed signs of fading in November

Lardaro: R.I.’s economic momentum showed signs of fading in November

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PBN Staff

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01/15/2025

Leonard Lardaro — RHODE ISLAND’S economic momentum showed signs of fading in November, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Wednesday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. / PBN FILE PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO

PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island’s economic momentum showed signs of fading in November, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Wednesday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index that Lardaro publishes each month had an expansion value of 67 in November, same as October and well below its value of 83

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PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island’s economic momentum showed signs of fading in November, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Wednesday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index that Lardaro publishes each month had an expansion value of 67 in November, same as October and well below its value of 83 in June. A CCI value above 50 indicates an economic expansion while a value below 50 indicates economic contraction. Lardaro said even though there have been significant yearly improvements in key economic indicators, the deteriorating monthly values that emerged this past summer will eventually translate into yearly declines if they continue to falter. “This trend is potentially very worrisome given the upcoming [inevitable] budget deficits that will slow our economic momentum,” Lardaro said. "So, while the CCI based on yearly changes remains in the expansion range [beyond 50], when calculated on a monthly basis quite the opposite is true. The monthly CCI has remained in the contraction range for every month since July.” Eight of the 12 indicators contained in the CCI improved year over year in November, including four of its five leading indicators, Lardaro said. The labor force rate grew 2% year over year in November, despite falling monthly since August. Retail sales, which Lardaro calls a “key indicator of our state’s economic health," rose by 4.8% in November. Total manufacturing hours rose 4.6% year over year in November largely based on increased weekly hours. However, manufacturing wages fell on a yearly basis for the second month, by 1.5%, after declining on a monthly basis for four consecutive months, Lardaro said. Employment service jobs grew at almost a 4% annual rate year over year in November but have fallen monthly for two months. New claims improved in November after two months of increases. Government employment registered a 2.1% year-over-year increase in November, the indicator's 15th increase since September 2023, while private service-producing employment saw its growth increase by 2% year over year in November. Single-unit permits fell 4.9% year over year in November, which is the CCI indicator’s first year-over-year decline since March. Benefit exhaustions rose 45.2% year over year in November, which is that indicator’s sixth consecutive double-digit monthly increase. Year-over-year CCI indicators in November:

Employment service jobs increased by 3.9%.

Government employment increased by 2.1%.

Labor force increased by 2.2%.

Total manufacturing hours increased by 4.6%.

Manufacturing wage decreased by 1.5%.

New unemployment claims decreased by 4.6%.

Private service-producing employment increased by 2%.

Retail sales increased by 4.8%.

Single-unit permits decreased by 4.9%.

Unemployment benefit exhaustions increased by 45.2%.

Unemployment rate increased by 1.2%.