Home Economy Economic Activity Lardaro: R.I.’s economy growing again

Lardaro: R.I.’s economy growing again

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PBN Staff

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04/12/2024

Lardaro-1 (1) — RHODE ISLAND’S labor market began its breakout in February after being stuck in first gear most of last year, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro concluded Friday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. / PBN FILE PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO

PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island’s growing economy began its breakout in February after being stuck in first gear most of last year, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro concluded Friday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index that Lardaro publishes each month had an expansion value of 67 in February, up

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PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island’s growing economy began its breakout in February after being stuck in first gear most of last year, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro concluded Friday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index that Lardaro publishes each month had an expansion value of 67 in February, up from 58 in January. A CCI value below 50 indicates economic contraction, while a value above 50 indicates an economic expansion. “The February value, 67, is encouraging as it signifies the possibility that the pace of activity here is accelerating a bit, having been largely stuck at 58 last year,” Lardaro said. “There were also a number of strong indicator performances, which makes February's 67 a strong 67 value. A few pockets of labor market weakness remain, but as the national economy appears to be accelerating, we should benefit.” The Current Conditions Index signaled the breakout as eight of the 12 CCI indicators improved, Lardaro said. Single-use permits rose for the second time this year in February and total manufacturing hours rose 4.2% that month for that sector’s third consecutive annual increase. Manufacturing wages increased 11.3% in February, well above the inflation rate and government employment rose 2.4% compared to February 2023. Retail sales increased 7.3% in February, continuing that sector’s rise since last June. Private service producing employment and U.S. consumer sentiment were also up in last month. Most significantly, the state’s labor force rose in February 1.6%, marking that sector’s seventh consecutive increase. A higher unemployment rate accompanied that rise in February as well. “This should go a long way toward continuing to ease labor shortages here,” Labrador said. “More importantly, Rhode Island now appears to have a labor force that actually rises during recoveries, just as other states do!” With all the momentum built in February, Lardaro warns there are still areas of concern. New claims have only improved in two of the last 13 months and employment service jobs have fallen every month since September 2022. Benefit exhaustions, which reflects longer-term unemployment, surged in April, and have risen every month since then. Year-over-year CCI indicators in February:

Employment-services jobs decreased by 7.9%.
Government employment increased by 2.3%.
Labor force increased by 1.6%.
Manufacturing hours increased by 4.2%.
Manufacturing wages increased by 11.3%.
New unemployment claims increased by 1%.
Private-service producing employment increased by 2.1%.
Retail sales increased by 7.28%.
Single-unit permits increased by 1.2%.
Unemployment benefit exhaustions increased by 38.2%.
Unemployment rate increased 1.1%.
U.S. consumer sentiment increased by 14.2%.