Home Economy Economic Activity Lardaro: R.I.’s economy may be recovering from recession

Lardaro: R.I.’s economy may be recovering from recession

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PBN Staff

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06/01/2026

Lardaro-1-1-1-1 — UNIVERSITY OF Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro in his monthly Current Conditions Index report says that Rhode Island may be in the early stages of recovering from its economic recession. / PBN FILE PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO

PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island may be in the early stages of recovering from its economic recession, University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro said May 30 in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The Current Conditions Index for April was 42, same as it has been eight out of the last nine months, including March.

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PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island may be in the early stages of recovering from its economic recession, University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro said May 30 in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The Current Conditions Index for April was 42, same as it has been eight out of the last nine months, including March. A CCI value above 50 indicates an economic expansion compared to the previous year while a value below 50 indicates economic contraction. Though the April value is a continuation of contraction values, Lardaro says things look better than they appear. “Rhode Island’s household survey data, which appears to be falling off a cliff, is very likely inaccurate,” Lardaro said. “While Rhode Island’s labor data for 2024 showed growth rates much higher than the U.S. overall, the official data shows that we have now moved well below the comparable U.S. growth rates with incredibly negative values for the last two months. “My interpretation is that the household survey data for Rhode Island are in the process of right sizing, moving our numbers back to where they would have been absent the abnormal 2023 growth rates. I hope my interpretation is correct.” Five of the CCI’s 12 indicators improved year over year in April, Lardaro said. Retail sales, what Lardaro calls a key CCI indicator, grew 3.6% year over year in April. Total manufacturing hours, another key indicator, grew 6.1% year over year. Single-unit permits grew for the second straight month year over year to 7.9%. New claims fell year over year for the fourth time in six months, while benefit exhaustions fell year over year for the second consecutive month in April. “My hope is that Rhode Island is near or actually at the point of moving beyond the string of contraction values for this year,” Lardaro said. “Maybe, just maybe, we might be in the early stages of a recovery, which would have been apparent had it not been for the difficulties with the household survey data.” Year-over-year CCI indicators in April:

Employment-service jobs decreased by 0.1%.

Government employment decreased by 1.8%.

Labor force decreased by 1.8%.

Total manufacturing hours increased by 6.1%.

Manufacturing wages decreased by 0.5%.

New unemployment claims decreased by 7.6%.

Private-service-producing employment decreased by 0.6%.

Retail sales increased by 3.6%.

Single-unit permits increased by 7.9%.

Unemployment benefit exhaustions decreased by 4.7%.

Unemployment rate increased by 0.1%.

U.S. consumer sentiment decreased 4.3%.