Home Economy Economic Activity Lardaro: R.I.’s economy posts strong performance in June

Lardaro: R.I.’s economy posts strong performance in June

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PBN Staff

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08/19/2024

RHODE ISLAND’S economy was strong in June, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro says in his latest Current Conditions Index report. / PBN FILE PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO

PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island’s economy was strong in June and has moved out of “first gear,” University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index that Lardaro publishes each month had an expansion value of 83 in June, up from 75 in May. A

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PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island’s economy was strong in June and has moved out of “first gear,” University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index that Lardaro publishes each month had an expansion value of 83 in June, up from 75 in May. A CCI value above 50 indicates an economic expansion while a value below 50 indicates economic contraction. The CCI index has now increased three months in a row and has exceeded its year-earlier value five out of the last six months, Lardaro said. “There wasn’t much bad news in June,” Lardaro said. Ten of the 12 CCI indicators improved year-over-year in June, including the five leading indicators. Employment service jobs and new claims, two of the leading labor market indicators, improved from June 2023. New claims, reflective of layoffs, also went up for the first time since last September. "Should this be the beginning of sustained improvements for both indicators, that would be an important change for Rhode Island,” Lardaro said. The state’s labor force continued to improve on both a monthly and yearly basis in June, although the state’s unemployment rate continues to exceed 4% and is significantly higher than a year ago. Lardaro said this should be viewed “little more than statistical aberrations.” “Many of those who are still unemployed are now being counted once they actively search for work. So, while their actual status remains unchanged, their statistical status has changed – they are now in the labor force and unemployed," Lardaro said “This does not signal that our economy is weakening as might have been the case in the past. It is actually a signal of strength – an improving economy is causing more unemployed persons to begin searching for work and thus be counted as part of the labor force.” Benefit exhaustions, which reflect longer-term unemployment and are Lardaro's remaining concern moving forward, have now increased at double-digit rates every month since April. “I truly hope that the recent strength in Rhode Island’s economy is not the LO of FILO [First In, Last Out]," Lardaro said. “Will we be able to sustain this momentum as the U.S. economy slows? I strongly suspect that our momentum will diminish as well, but hopefully not enough to initiate a period of FI. At least we finally have something to build upon.” Year-over-year CCI indicators in June:

Employment services jobs increased by 1.7%.

Government employment increased by 2.2%.

Labor force increased by 3.0%.

Manufacturing hours increased by 6.8%.

Manufacturing wages increased by 3.2%.

New unemployment claims decreased by 15.6%.

Private service-producing employment increased by 0.7%.

Retail sales increased by 3.4%.

Single-unit permits increased by 22%.

Unemployment benefit exhaustions increased by 31.9%.

Unemployment rate increased 1.7%.

U.S. consumer sentiment increased by 6.6%.