September 2017 CCI ties measure year-to-date

MEASURING 75, Leonard Lardaro's September 2017 Current Conditions Index reported a tie year-to-date. The
MEASURING 75, Leonard Lardaro's September 2017 Current Conditions Index reported a tie year-to-date. The "train wreck" labor force, as Lardaro called it in the report, gained 0.5 percent. / COURTESY LEONARD LARDARO

SOUTH KINGSTOWN – The state’s September economy lined up exactly with that of 2016, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro’s latest Current Conditions Index, released Monday.

The latest CCI measured the state’s economy at 75, the same figure as that for September 2016, breaking the eight-month streak in which 2017 readings were higher than those for corresponding months in 2016. A CCI reading greater than 50 suggest economic growth and a value less than 50 indicated contraction.

In October, Providence Business News reported the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate as 4.2 percent, down 0.1 percentage points from August.

The eight-point drop from the August CCI’s score of 83 and that month’s 33-point gain year-over-year, emphasizes the fact that Rhode Island follows the “first in, first out” habit in times of economic prosperity and weakness, said Lardaro in the report.

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In September, nine of the 12 CCI indicators improved, according to the report.

Employment services jobs fell 1.9 percent in September while new claims, a timely measure of layoffs, grew by 4.9 percent and government employment dipped by 0.3 percent.

“Fortunately,” added Lardaro in the report, single-unit permits jumped by 11.4 percent and total manufacturing hours rose by 2.8 percent. Manufacturing wage experienced a 3.2 percent increase in September.

A 4.2 percent growth in U.S. consumer sentiment was realized in September – it’s eleventh consecutive gain, said Lardaro.

“Sustaining momentum in our state’s goods-producing sector will be critical to sustaining our forward progress as we move through the remainder of 2017,” he added.

In a “noticeable” dip private service-producing employment grew by 0.3 percent in September, said Lardaro while retail sales rose by 7.4 percent – it’s second consecutive increase.

A 6.8 percent dip was experienced in benefit exhaustions, reflective of longer-term unemployment, while the unemployment rate fell by 1.1 percent year-to-date in September.

And in what Lardaro calls Rhode Island’s “train wreck” labor force, the state saw improvement – “albeit marginally” – in a 0.5 percent bump.

Emily Gowdey-Backus is a PBN staff writer.

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