In early October 2017, a crowd of state and federal officials descended on T.F. Green Airport in Warwick, celebrating the completion of a runway extension that promised more international flights and, eventually, new nonstop trips to the West Coast.
Under a tent set up for the gathering not far from the end of Runway 5, Gov. Gina M. Raimondo was upbeat, joking that she had become a frequent visitor to Green, announcing the arrival of new carriers. “It seems I’m at the airport every other month for a new announcement,” she said. “We’re just getting started.”
But the momentum wouldn’t last.
Although passenger traffic at Rhode Island’s largest airport climbed in 2018, the numbers have sagged ever since, as hundreds of thousands fewer passengers used Green in the first 11 months of 2019 than they did in the same period a year earlier.
Weighing down the numbers: Four of nine air services recruited since 2016 have now pulled out of Green, and nonstop flights to the West Coast haven’t materialized. Also adding to the woes: the indefinite grounding of the Boeing Co.’s 737 MAX, a narrow-body jet that was a ubiquitous workhorse for some carriers at Green before two deadly crashes overseas.
Aviation analysts say the solution to the underperformance is getting more booked flights for Green’s remaining airlines and those airlines finding a replacement for the fuel-efficient 737 MAX that made flights into smaller airports such as Green economically feasible.
Making it happen may be more complex than it seems.
Specifically, the airport needs more people outside of New England to book their flights to Rhode Island, rather than to Boston. Green’s inbound traffic is disproportionately low in comparison with other airports, according to federal data provided by Green administrators.
But while reversing that trend is a challenge, analysts say it is not impossible. Airport officials are focused on raising Green’s profile among travelers through marketing – including a potential name change – to show that Green is a convenient and affordable alternative to Boston’s Logan International Airport for those with travel plans to the Northeast.
It’s hoped that the strategy will increase bookings and, in turn, will justify airlines adding more flights and new destinations.
Green recorded a total of 3.7 million travelers passing through the airport in 2019 through November, according to the most recent available figures. That’s an 8% drop from the same period a year earlier.
The goal is to reach about 6 million passengers annually, said Iftikhar Ahmad, CEO and president of the R.I. Airport Corp., which operates Green. Ahmad is aiming for Green “to be a strong ‘medium’ hub,” he said. “To connect Rhode Island to the rest of the world in a meaningful way.”
[caption id="attachment_314122" align="aligncenter" width="1024"]
FLYING LOWER: The security checkpoint in the terminal at T.F. Green Airport experiences a lull on a recent weekday in January. After three years of solid growth, the airport saw its total passenger count decline about 8% in the first 11 months of 2019. / PBN PHOTO/MIKE SKORSKI[/caption]
GROUNDED
To some extent, the issues that have slowed passenger traffic for the past year are beyond the control of airport administrators.
When aviation authorities worldwide grounded the 737 MAX in March 2019, following deadly crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia, the repercussions were felt disproportionately at airports such as Green, where airlines dependent on the 737 MAX carried a larger share of the passengers, analysts say. Two of its carriers – Southwest Airlines and Norwegian Air – relied heavily on the 737 MAX.
In fact, Norwegian Air cited the 737 MAX grounding when it withdrew from Green in September, ending four weekly flights to Dublin.
For airports, expanding flights and passengers involves a “chicken and egg” dilemma: The more flights they have, the more passengers they attract; the more passengers they attract, the more flights they can offer, analysts say.
And Green, because it is so close to Boston, competes directly with the much larger Logan airport.
“More competition typically attracts a lower fare,” said Carlos Ozores, principal and an aviation consultant for Fairfax, Va.-based ICF International Inc., a consulting and technology services company. “Boston’s strength is its connections.”
But Green, he said, does not have a demand problem. It has a catchment area that includes affluent, densely populated areas in Rhode Island and parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts. “You’re talking 2 million-plus people who are closer to Providence than to Logan,” he said.
The availability of aircraft – not passengers – to make smaller markets viable is the issue, he said. The 737 MAX allowed airlines to provide those flights efficiently, rather than using more-expensive, larger planes, Ozores said. Right now, there is not a ready substitute for many routes.
“The demand is there,” he said of passenger interest. “The challenge is the aircraft is not there. There are not enough of them.”
The routes could become feasible again if the 737 MAX is cleared to fly, or if airlines decide to employ the smaller but efficient Airbus A220 instead. “Without question, [Green] has been one of those airports disproportionately affected by the MAX,” Ozores said.
[caption id="attachment_314124" align="aligncenter" width="1024"]
RUNWAY EXTENSION: An extension of Runway 5 at T.F. Green Airport was completed in 2017 to accommodate larger, heavier, long-range jets with the ability to handle international flights and nonstop flights to the West Coast. But nonstop flights haven’t materialized and international flights have been reduced to a single route to Toronto. / COURTESY R.I. AIRPORT CORP.[/caption]
INBOUND ISSUES
Still, for some people, Green’s extended runway – completed in 2017 to accommodate larger, heavier, long-range jets – is a visible reminder of what the airport still lacks. The airport has no direct service to the West Coast, and the international flights – after expanding for two years – have now been reduced to a single destination: Air Canada provides a direct route to Toronto.
The nearly $250 million runway expansion, largely funded through federal dollars, provides the infrastructure that will accommodate those flights. But there needs to be enough inbound and outbound passengers willing to buy tickets, Ahmad said.
In an analysis of where the airport is underperforming, Ahmad said the research is pointing to inbound traffic, or tickets purchased by people flying into Warwick. A March 2019 study of the airport passengers found that Green was lacking when it came to the amount of its inbound passengers, compared with nine other airports.
At Green, 41.9% of the passengers were incoming, compared with 45.5% at Atlanta’s airport, and 45.9% in Boston. At the New Orleans airport, inbound traffic represented 62% of the passengers.
Correcting this imbalance is part of a long strategy, Ahmad said.
“In the recipe of West Coast flights and European flights, it’s good to have long runways,” Ahmad said. “In that same recipe is … buying tickets. You have to have demand. We are working with our partners to create that demand, by getting the word out, so we’re not confused with Long Island.”
Beyond marketing, Ahmad said he is continuing to meet with airline executives, selling them on Green as an alternative to Logan as a disembarking point, with ready access to destinations on the New England coast, such as Boston, Newport, Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard.
[caption id="attachment_314125" align="aligncenter" width="1024"]
CHECKING IN: Passengers check in for their flights at a Southwest Airlines ticket counter in T.F. Green Airport in Warwick. / PBN PHOTO/MIKE SKORSKI[/caption]
NAME-DROPPING
Part of the challenge that Green has to overcome is perception.
Michael Boyd, president of the Colorado-based Boyd Group International Inc., is an aviation consultant working with Green on its passenger models. “You’re still a strong market,” he said. “The goal is to show people, if you’re coming to New England, unless you’re going to Faneuil Hall [in Boston], you can get to any place in the region just as easily from Providence.”
Since the runway extension at Green, Boyd said, airport officials have traveled abroad and met with three Chinese airlines interested in adding flights to the U.S.
The talks ultimately didn’t lead to commitments, but airport officials made their case for the economic benefits of flying into Green.
“We showed them that not only can you access Boston and New England better from Providence, but it’s a lot cheaper [for the airlines]. We’re talking [one-quarter] of a million dollars cheaper. It’s getting those messages across,” he said.
Those messages are an attempt to counter a problem that Ahmad said is factoring into Green’s lower passenger counts. Outside the immediate area, many people do not recognize the name T.F. Green Airport, or its location in New England.
A study conducted for Green in 2018 by Pan Atlantic Research asked respondents to name the airport that serves “the area in and around Rhode Island’s largest city.” Only 10% of residents in major U.S. cities could identify “T.F. Green.” For that matter, only 42% of Rhode Island residents could identify the name without help.
That’s why Ahmad has sought a name change for Green, to more firmly place the airport in the minds of travelers when they book their flights.
Over the last two years, the effort has hit a snag because state lawmakers couldn’t agree on a new name. “Rhode Island International Airport” was approved by the House, not the Senate; “Rhode Island-T.F. Green International Airport” was approved by the Senate, not the House.
In travel planning, a name matters, Ahmad said.
If tourists want to go to Martha’s Vineyard, for example, they may only search flight destinations through a location such as Boston.
“You have it in your head, ‘I will go to Boston then Martha’s Vineyard,’ ” Ahmad said. “It would never occur to you that [Green is] closer and we have a fast ferry that goes to Martha’s Vineyard, and the ferry’s van comes and picks you up.”
[caption id="attachment_314127" align="aligncenter" width="1024"]
TOTAL PASSENGERS AT T.F. GREEN AIRPORT *(Does not include numbers from December, which are not available yet.)
SOURCE: R.I. Airport Corp.[/caption]
In recent years, he noted, several medium and small airports have changed names to align themselves with the closest city or natural attraction – or explored doing so. The most recent example is in Connecticut, where Bradley International Airport, outside Hartford, has embarked on a study to change its name.
“Some cities, some places have the gravitational pull,” Ahmad said. “Some, not as much. We do get confused with Long Island.”
He recently met with a flight planner, representing an airline that could offer a direct flight to Austin, Texas. Ahmad was asked: Why do you want us?
“I said, ‘A lot of our people want to go to Austin,’ ” Ahmad recalled. The planner responded with a rejection: “Austin wants to go to Boston.”
“There is a journey that needs to take place on the name, on marketing, on getting the state familiarized out there,” Ahmad said.
RISE AND FALL … AND RISE?
Just how much has traffic fallen back, and how much of a concern is it to people beyond the airport and its industry?
Warwick Mayor Joseph J. Solomon, for one, is upbeat about the recent history of the airport. He is not particularly concerned about the loss of passengers in 2019.
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BOARDING: Allegiant Air, which serves several airports in Florida with direct flights, is one of five carriers that T.F. Green Airport has retained after introducing nine new air services since 2016. / PBN FILE PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO[/caption]
“Even with the decline this past year, it’s had a trend of increasing over the past 20 years,” Solomon said. “The decline, I believe, is not unique to this particular facility. … I’ve seen this in the past. And I’ve seen it bounce back.”
Indeed, airport data show that after hitting a high of 5.7 million passengers in 2005, the airport steadily lost more than 2 million passengers over the next decade. The low point came in 2015, with 3.5 million passengers traveling through Green.
Green’s numbers climbed steadily after that, reaching 4.2 million passengers in 2018 before falling again last year.
Solomon noted that the future of the airport and of Warwick are tied together. The city gains direct revenue from airport-related business, including from the hotel tax, meals tax and parking-related income. In addition, it has City Centre Warwick, a central mixed-used district, that’s closely aligned with the airport.
“We’ve attracted a lot of out-of-state businesses that have maintained field offices or are looking to locate their main offices in Warwick, because of the proximity of the airport,” he said.
While several airlines have pulled their flights from Green in the past year, the airport still has five more carriers than it had in 2016, as well as 27 direct flights to eight more destinations.
Of the services that arrived since 2016, Norwegian, OneJet, Vacation Express and Regional Jet no longer operate out of Green, while Air Canada, Frontier Airlines, Allegiant Air, Sun Country Airlines and Southern Airways Express have stayed. And new destinations reachable through nonstop flights include Denver, Minneapolis, Raleigh-Durham, N.C., and Cincinnati.
In the future, Ozores said, T.F. Green Airport might be a good connection point for a new carrier planned by David Neeleman, the founder of JetBlue and Azul Brazilian Airlines.
Neeleman’s new low-cost airline – at this point dubbed “Moxy” – will target smaller, secondary airports, according to media reports. It has ordered 60 A220 jets, Airline Weekly said.
“Providence needs to be speaking with Moxy,” Ozores said.
When asked about the startup airline, Ahmad said he had been in contact but would not elaborate. “Yes, we have talked to them, just like we talk to all the other airlines,” he said.
As for Green’s transatlantic connections, they are lost for the foreseeable future.
The grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX precipitated that, Ahmad said. Toward the end of Norwegian Air’s run at Green, the percentage of sold seats was high, he said, but the business model was unsustainable for the airline.
Norwegian relied exclusively on the Boeing jets, and after they were grounded, the airline tried to maintain the Dublin route with leased jets, to no avail.
Ahmad is confident that European connections can be reestablished. Green doesn’t need flights to every city but to central hubs in Europe that will allow travelers to get where they need to be, Ahmad said.
“We’re in the long game here,” he said. “We would like to slowly and steadily change the airport and transform it into a bigger asset for the sake of jobs and economic impact.”
Mary MacDonald is a PBN staff writer. Contact her at Macdonald@PBN.com.
It is definitely high time to change the name of the airport. And it should be called “Providence International Airport”. Providence has greater name recognition than Rhode Island and has no risk of being confused with neighboring locales. It amazes me that when I say I am from Rhode Island, I still hear the response “Long Island?”. I respond “no Rhode Island, one of the original 13 colonies that founded our country”. I usually get blank looks . . .
Once again, Ahmad is aiming for Green “to be a strong ‘medium’ hub,” he said. “To connect Rhode Island to the rest of the world in a meaningful way.”
You write “…book their flights to Rhode Island, rather than to Boston.”
It is NOT Rhode Island”…it is the PROVIDENCE METRO AREA (RI and Southeastern MA) and beyond that Green serves. People fly to cities – like PROVIDENCE and Boston, etc. not to states.
As the president of the Colorado-based Boyd Group International Inc., is an aviation consultant working with Green on its passenger models. “You’re still a strong market,” he said. “The goal is to show people, if you’re coming to New England, unless you’re going to Faneuil Hall [in Boston], you can get to any place in the region just as easily from PROVIDENCE”
As to the ridiculous RI TF Green International Airport, There is NO airport named after a state, they ALL identify with the major city they serve – in this case, PROVIDENCE.
Rhode Island is not a destination and is confused with Long Island.
PROVIDENCE is a destination and is never confused with anything.
Simple solution : PROVIDENCE GREEN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
Sound familiar? Boston Logan International Airport.