WASHINGTON – Republicans fighting to hang on to their majority in the House in the congressional elections this November may be helped by one bit of good news: voters’ good feelings about the economy.
A CBS News poll released Sunday found that 44 percent of Americans rate the nation’s economy as “somewhat good” and another 21 percent as “very good” – 65 percent in total, versus only 35 percent who said the U.S. economy is very bad or somewhat bad.
The poll of 2,238 adults was conducted Aug. 8-10 by public opinion company YouGov and has a margin of error of 2.5 percent.
The data represent a bright spot for Republicans as Democrats hope President Donald Trump’s low job approval rating in most surveys will translate into a so-called “blue wave” of support to flip Republican seats their way.
Democrats are seeking to counter the GOP’s message on the economy by highlighting regions that were struggling before Trump took office and haven’t bounced back. There’s evidence, including from the latest payrolls report, that the strong U.S. economy may not be trickling down from the wealthy to the middle-class in the form of wage growth and other benefits.
The historical trend is the Democrats’ friend, since the party holding the White House typically loses seats in mid-term elections. On average, the president’s party lost 27 House seats in midterms between 1934 and 2014, and the average first-term loss was 25 seats, according to data compiled by the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
In polls on a “generic Congressional vote” for 2018, Democrats have held an edge all year.
Still, they may have to overcome the accelerating economy in which the U.S. stock market and employment – two of Trump’s favorite economic talking points – remain strong.
The U.S. unemployment rate in July, at 3.9 percent, was near a 50-year low. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index has gained about 6 percent this year and is close to overtaking the longest bull run ever – gains that started early in Barack Obama’s administration and have been extended under Trump.
Many Republicans on the campaign trail have touted the good news about the economy as well as tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks implemented under Trump.
Democrats, who need to flip at least 23 Republican-held seats nationwide to gain control of the House, intend to focus on anger over some of Trump’s policies, including a burgeoning trade war with China and immigration policy that separated small children from their parents, as well as a desire by voters for more checks and balances in Washington.
The CBS poll showed that 40 percent of people rated the job Trump was doing as president as “very bad” and 14 percent as “somewhat bad,” versus 25 percent who said the president was doing a “very good” job and 21 percent with a “somewhat good” rating.
Ari Natter is a Bloomberg News staff writer.
