PROVIDENCE – Most Rhode Island voters believe the $787 billion economic stimulus plan that President Barack Obama is slated to sign into law today in Denver will improve the nation’s economy, but they worry about how quickly those effects will be seen, based on a poll by the A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy and American Institutions at Brown University. They also are sharply split on Gov. Donald L. Carcieri’s recent proposals for closing the state budget gap.
Among the registered voters polled, 74.3 percent predicted that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 – expected to bring about $1 billion in credits or payments and 12,000 jobs to the Rhode Island economy (READ MORE) – will make the nation’s economy at least a little better; 9.6 percent said it would have no effect; and 9.8 percent said it would worsen the economy, the Taubman Center found. (The other 6.2 percent expressed no opinion.)
Only 45.4 percent of respondents expected it to bring any improvement in their family’s finances; 42.5 percent predicted the plan will have no effect on their personal fortunes; and 6.3 percent said they expect it to worsen their personal situation.
Asked whether they worried the federal plan might not stimulate the economy quickly enough, however, 38 percent said they were very concerned; 43.4 percent somewhat concerned; 13.2 percent not too concerned; and 3.1 percent not concerned at all.
More than half of respondents (54.6 percent) described their personal finances as good or excellent, while 30.8 percent said they are not so good and 12.8 percent described their personal status as poor.
But 66.4 percent said they had a friend or family member who had recently lost his or her job.
And only 3 percent – including the undecideds – described the national economy as anything but poor or not so good, while bright views of the state economy were even rarer. The U.S. economy is in poor shape according to 70.2 percent of local registered voters polled; not so good according to 26.9 percent; good in the view of 1.8 percent; and excellent according to 0.5 percent. Rhode Island’s economy is in poor shape in the view of 82.2 percent; not so good according to 16.2 percent; good according to 0.2 percent; and excellent in the view of 0.4 percent.
Asked what is the top problem facing the nation, 64.4 percent cited the economy or related matters, such as jobs, unemployment or consumer mortgages. Energy independence or climate change were cited by 2.8 percent; infrastructure, education and reducing the pay gap between workers and CEOs each were listed as the top concern by 1.2 percent of respondents.
On the state level, 80 percent said they believe Rhode Island is on the wrong track.
Seventy-eight percent said they support the consolidation or regionalization of some or all public services, one of several measures proposed by Gov. Donald L. Carcieri (READ MORE) to help narrow the state’s growing budget gap. Consolidation of all services or “everything” was endorsed by 30.7 percent or respondents; school administration by 37.5 percent; public safety by 4.2 percent; and purchasing of materials by 1 percent.
Voters strongly opposed any increase in the state income tax, by 72.5 percent to 19.2 percent; any reduction in state aid to education, by 71.3 percent to 23 percent; or any reduction in state aid to cities and towns, by 60.9 percent to 27.1 percent. The elimination of school bus monitors also was opposed, by 50.5 percent to 37.5 percent.
Respondents were more evenly divided on Carcieri’s proposals for layoffs of state workers, opposed by 42 percent and supported by 41.5 percent; increases in the capital gains tax, supported by 44.9 percent and opposed by 40.4 percent; or the elimination of the annual cost of living adjustments (COLA) from state, municipal and teacher pensions, a move supported by 46.4 percent to 40.5 percent.
Favored by most of those surveyed were a switch from a classic pension to a 401(k)-like “defined contribution” retirement plan for new public employees, supported by 63 percent to 20.3 percent; a shorter work-week for public employees (35 hours instead of 40) by 63.9 percent to 21.3 percent; unpaid furlough days for public workers, supported by 50 percent to 35.7 percent; and an income-tax hike for high-wage earners, an idea favored by 60.9 percent and opposed by 30.7 percent.
The survey – conducted Feb. 7 through 10 by the Taubman Center’s director, Marion Orr, the university’s Fred Lippitt professor of public policy and political science, and the John Hazen White Public Opinion Laboratory – quizzed a statewide random sampling of 451 registered voters. It had an overall margin of error of about plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
When voters were asked about the performance of state and federal officials, President Obama’s performance was rated as good or excellent by 62 percent of respondents, matching their evaluation of U.S. Sen. Jack Reed. U.S. Rep. Jim Langevin won the approval of 42 percent of respondents; U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, 42 percent; and U.S. Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy, 38 percent.
Gov. Donald L. Carcieri’s performance is good or excellent in the view of 34 percent of respondents. Attorney General Patrick C. Lynch had a 47 percent approval rating; General Treasurer Frank T. Caprio Jr., 34 percent; Secretary of State Ralph Mollis, 28 percent; and Lieutenant Governor Elizabeth Roberts, 28 percent. R.I. Senate President M. Teresa Paiva Weed won the approval of 15 percent of respondents and House Speaker William J. Murphy of 14 percent, while Providence Mayor David M. Cicilline is doing a good or excellent job in the view of 38 percent of respondents statewide.
The A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy and American Institutions – established at Brown University in 1984 – focuses on research, service and teaching in the areas of health care; media and technology; education, social welfare and urban policy; law and criminal justice. It conducts quarterly surveys of Rhode Island voters on a wide variety of topics. For further information, visit www.brown.edu.
