PROVIDENCE – An index of Rhode Island’s leading economic indicators continued to grow in November, although less than previous months.
The Providence Business News/e-forecasting.com index for the state rose 0.1 percent to 113.8 in November, compared with 0.4 percent growth in October. A reading of 100 is equivalent to the state’s economic activity in 2000.
November was the seventh consecutive month that the index grew by less than 1 percent. The index has posted increases since May 2009.
The leading indicators index uses nine published statistics to forecast the direction of the state’s economy over the next three to six months, with positive numbers signaling growth and negative numbers signaling contraction.
In November, four of the nine components made positive contributions to the index, including weekly hours in manufacturing, national stock prices, the interest rate spread and the national orders index.
Five components, however, contributed negatively to the index: unemployment claims, -0.16 percent; building permits, -0.07 percent; manufacturing exports, -0.02 percent; consumer expectations, -0.11 percent; and the state employment barometer, -0.03 percent.
The six-month, annualized growth rate – a measure designed to provide earlier signals for turning points in business cycle analysis – was 7.2 percent in November. The half-year measure has been dropping dramatically since April 2010, when it peaked at 17.8 percent.
