Census miscount likely allowed R.I. to keep second congressional seat

A MAP SHOWS states that gained or lost a congressional seat based on 2020 U.S. Census Bureau numbers. Several states, including Rhode Island, were miscounted, the bureau announced on Thursday. / COURTESY U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

PROVIDENCE – A miscount in the 2020 U.S. Census Bureau report seemingly allowed Rhode Island to keep its second congressional seat, corrected data from the national agency revealed on Thursday.

During the last census cycle, Rhode Island appeared poised to lose one of its two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives due to stagnant population trends – a possibility that still seems likely in the next Census count in 2030, said John Marion, executive director of Common Cause Rhode Island. 

But until then, Marion said, the previous tally, which inflated the state’s population by about 55,000 people, will remain in effect for determining the state’s representation and federal funding.

The corrected data “doesn’t change the results of the census in any way,” Marion said, thanks to a 1999 Supreme Court ruling that prevents revisions to the original tally. 

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“Rhode Island will continue to have a second congressional seat for the next 10 years,” he said. “Rhode Island will not lose any federal funds. All this does is provide some information about the accuracy of the 2020 census.” 

Rhode Island had needed an increase of 19,127 people in the Census to keep the seat – a prospect that many observers deemed unlikely.

At the time, state and municipal officials embarked on efforts to ensure as full a count as possible, with then-Gov. Gina M. Raimondo establishing a committee tasked with reaching out to historically “hard to count” individuals and communities.

In what was widely regarded as a surprise, the Census Bureau reported in April 2021 that Rhode Island’s population had grown by 44,912 people since the 2010 census, for a total of 1,097,379 residents in 2020.

Rhode Island was one of a small number of states to have its representation impacted by a miscount in the 2020 census: An overcount also seems likely to have saved Minnesota from losing a seat, according to The Associated Press, while undercounts in Florida and Texas likely prevented those states from gaining an additional seat each.

In Rhode Island, the inaccuracy mostly results from the Census Bureau counting some people more than once, though Marion said it’s not clear what caused this error.

Miscounts aren’t unheard of, Marion said, though they’re typically not as significant.  

But the unusual results are “not necessarily a big surprise” due to pandemic-related complications, he said. 

While the corrected data will not prompt an immediate change, current population trends indicate that Rhode Island will lose its second congressional seat during the next count in 2030, Marion said.

This change “would take us from having two of the smallest congressional districts by population to one of the largest congressional districts by population,” Marion said, which “would make it harder for Rhode Islanders to access government services because oftentimes they rely on members of Congress to help with that.” 

Funding for federal programs such as Medicaid, school lunches and housing appropriations are also tied to the state’s population, but not on a threshold basis.

The state had not lost a congressional seat since 1930, when the number of its representatives was cut from three to two under federal guidelines.

Jacquelyn Voghel is a PBN staff writer. You may reach her at Voghel@PBN.com.

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