PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island’s economy expanded for the 11th consecutive month in February but pandemic-related employment concerns remain, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said on Monday.
The Rhode Island current conditions index he produces each month had a value of 75 in February, same as it was in January. It marks a continued expansion, but a step down from the final three months of 2021 when the value sat at 92.
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A CCI value above 50 indicates expansion, while a value below 50 indicates contraction.
Nine of 12 indicators that comprise the index improved year over year. But Lardaro said extremely easy “comps” from a year ago aided Rhode Island’s continued economic recovery in February. He said this will be the last month for which such easy comparisons exist, which should cause the CCI to move to a somewhat lower range as the pace of economic activity improves but at more uneven, moderate rates.
“For February, only two of the five leading indicators contained in the CCI improved,” Lardaro said. “Several improving indicators, notably the labor force [+0.3%] barely managed to register a gain this month while the indicators that failed to improve had disturbing negative rates of growth.”
And on a month-to-month comparison, February’s performance was weak – with a neutral value of 50 – continuing a trend that Lardaro says offers further evidence suggesting an uneven recovery from this point forward.
“For Rhode Island, the most pressing question is, how long will it take for employment to return to its pre-pandemic level,” he said.
Lardaro said retail sales was the star performer in the February CCI. The 7.4% increase was, ironically, its first nondouble-digit increase since January 2021.
Year-over-year CCI indicator performance in February:
- Government employment increased 1.1%.
- U.S. consumer sentiment declined 18%.
- Single-unit permits declined 10%.
- Retail sales rose 7.4%.
- Employment services jobs decreased 7.4%.
- Private services production employment rose 4.1%.
- Total manufacturing hours increased 15.2%.
- The state’s manufacturing wage rose 11.3%.
- The state labor force grew 0.3%.
- Benefit exhaustions declined 68.8%.
- New claims declined 64.1%.
- The state’s unemployment rate declined 2.2 percentage points.
