(Editor's note: This is the first of a three-part series exploring Rhode Island's vulnerability to coastal flooding and what businesses, property owners and local communities can do to better prepare. Read part two here and part three here.)
When the Great Hurricane of 1938 barreled ashore on Sept. 21, it cast Rhode Island into a state of chaos.
The “symphony of death and destruction,” as it was described by the former Providence printing firm Livermore & Knight Co., killed at least 600 people, including more than 200 in Rhode Island, and left 63,000 homeless. It destroyed 9,000 homes, cottages and buildings, and damaged another 15,000. More than 500,000 people were without electricity, and the property damage totaled the equivalent of $5.4 billion in today’s value.
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UPROOTED: A tree in Providence was uprooted by the Great Hurricane of 1938. By one estimate, 275 million trees were downed throughout New England as a result of the storm. / COURTESY PROVIDENCE PUBLIC LIBRARY[/caption]
“It was a milestone, like Kennedy’s assassination, Pearl Harbor day, or even Sept. 11,” wrote Cherie Burns, author of “The Great Hurricane: 1938.”
At the time, the hurricane was described as a “freak” weather event, a popular phrase used to detail infrequent and difficult-to-explain weather occurrences. The chances of a hurricane reaching New England without dissipating or bearing east after hitting cooler waters was deemed so improbable, the United States Weather Bureau dismissed a junior forecaster who tried to raise the alarm and warn New Englanders.
Fast-forward 80 years, however, and the phenomenon has repeated itself several times, as damaging coastal storms have become more common.
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MARKET SQUARE: Waters cover the streets and up the sides of windows and cars in Market Square during Hurricane Carol in 1954. The damage to the capital city was similar to what happened 16 years earlier in 1938. / COURTESY PROVIDENCE PUBLIC LIBRARY[/caption]
In 1954, Hurricane Carol again left Rhode Island reeling, pushing the state to build a hurricane barrier to better protect the capital city. Other coastal communities, meanwhile, have taken mostly small steps after subsequent storms to better protect against flooding along the shoreline.
Yet many experts wonder why so many parts of Rhode Island are still almost shockingly unprotected from nature’s wrath.
“I think our attention span is so damn short these days,” said Grover J. Fugate, executive director of the R.I. Coastal Resources Management Council. “How much do we talk about what happened in Puerto Rico or Houston? There are lessons that we should be mining out of those examples and using them to build more resiliently. But nobody wants to talk about it.”
The number and strength of extreme weather events vary year to year, but overarching trends suggest they are growing in North America. Scientists point to climate change as a driving factor, as warming water begets greater levels of evaporation, which helps fuel coastal storms.
Rhode Island has had 22 major disasters or emergency declarations since 1953. More than one-third have occurred in the last seven years. The trend is also seen nationwide, as an average of 46 major disasters were declared each year from 1990 to 1999. From 2000 to 2009, the number grew to 56.
Hurricane Irma last year was the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Harvey, which led to devastating floods in Houston, brought the worst rainfall on record.
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HIGH-WATER MARK: Grover J. Fugate, executive director of the R.I. Coastal Resources Management Council, stands next to a placard showing the high-water mark from the Great Hurricane of 1938, at the corner of Brown Street and Main Street in North Kingstown. / PBN PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO[/caption]
“We’re seeing an intensification play out right now,” Fugate said.
Rhode Island is uniquely exposed because of its nearly 400 miles of coastline in a state that’s 37 miles wide and 48 miles in length. And weather-related issues – particularly flooding – will only get worse in the future if scientists are accurate in projecting sea levels rising nearly 10 feet by 2100.
The rising waters would swallow up about 36 square miles of Rhode Island shorefront, along with homes, businesses, marinas and piers.
Entire neighborhoods, including Oakland Beach and Conimicut Point in Warwick, the Point in Newport, parts of Westerly and even Providence – supposedly safe behind its hurricane barrier – are increasingly exposed. At stake are the property and livelihoods of individuals, families, businesses and municipalities.
But Fugate and others trying to draw more attention to the risks say the appetite to deal with them has, to date, been limited.
“We didn’t learn after Katrina, we didn’t learn after Sandy and we’re not likely to learn after Irma or Harvey. So, you have to ask yourself: What does it take?” Fugate said.
COASTAL THREAT
There are 21 coastal municipalities in Rhode Island and each one faces some level of exposure to coastal storms.
That’s not to say the other 18 cities and towns are out of harm’s way, as storms are often accompanied by treacherous wind, rain and the swelling of in-land waters that can reach every corner of the state.
But people, property, infrastructure and the natural environment along the coast – particularly in Washington County and at the top of Narragansett Bay – have and will continue to face the biggest upfront threat.
“We will get another hurricane that will destroy a lot of homes and businesses … we know that as a fact,” said William J. DePasquale Jr., Warwick planning director. “What we don’t know is the day.”
Warwick has taken steps toward making itself more resilient. It has purchased coastal property, converting it to protected land, and even used federal funds to raise one home that repeatedly floods.
But DePasquale is realistic about the financial, political and socioeconomic constraints that make it difficult for the city and its residents to move more quickly.
“Sometimes there are no good answers,” DePasquale said. “But you have to keep swinging and not become so discouraged that you don’t do anything.”
To estimate the impact coastal storms and sea-level rise will have on Rhode Island now and in the future, CRMC has “Stormtools,” which maps out different weather scenarios. The tool shows property-by-property exposure in the event of nuisance or extreme storms, and can be adjusted for sea-level rise.
For some communities, the results are jarring.
For instance, in the event of a 100-year storm surge today, 2,636 residential properties in Warwick alone would be damaged. Add 3 feet of sea-level rise, a level federal scientists expect to reach by 2050, and the number of damaged residential properties jumps to 3,895. Add 7 feet of sea-level rise, reached sometime around 2080, and 5,422 structures will be damaged. That’s 17.8 percent of all residential properties in the state’s second-largest city.
Looking at commercial properties under the same scenario, and Newport is among the municipalities most exposed. A 100-year storm surge today would damage 346 commercial properties in the City by the Sea. Add 3 feet of sea-level rise and the number grows to 439. At 7 feet of sea-level rise, more than half – 51.5 percent – of Newport’s commercial properties would be damaged.
To give an idea about how fast sea levels are rising, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in 2012 predicted – with 83 percent confidence – sea levels in Rhode Island would rise nearly 7 feet by 2100. The scientific agency, an arm of the Department of Commerce, last year revised those projections upward to nearly 10 feet.
“These scenarios will help communities better understand the local trends and make decisions about adaptation that are best for them,” William Sweet, an NOAA oceanographer, said last year.
The increasing threat of storms and sea levels rising does concern many coastal property owners, who have watched as nearby beaches and marshlands have disappeared over the years.
“I’ve noticed a change in the sea level since just moving here in 1992,” said Jeff Barris, who owns a home on the upper part of Warwick Neck in Warwick. “I don’t have any scientific information on that, but the water heights between tides seem greater than they did when I moved in.”
But because many people see climate change and sea-level rise as politically charged issues, there’s been no consensus from the public sector on what to do about them. And state and local dollars that might boost the protection of local communities often get eaten up by what officials and voters see as more timely issues.
More pressure from the private sector could speed the process, which could also strain local municipal budgets.
“While we anticipate states and municipalities will adopt mitigation strategies for these events, costs to employ them could also become an ongoing credit challenge,” said Michael Wertz, vice president at Moody’s Investors Service.
But not doing anything could also cost local communities, and beyond just storm damage.
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NARRAGANSETT PIER: Two people stand amid stone rubble of buildings in the aftermath of the Great Hurricane of 1938. / COURTESY PROVIDENCE PUBLIC LIBRARY[/caption]
‘TIME TO WAKE UP’
Moody’s in a November report announced it would start considering climate change as part of its risk assessment of state and local governments.
The global credit rating agency has significant sway over the creditworthiness of local governments, something that affects the cost of borrowing – a financing mechanism used by cities and towns to pay for new roads, sidewalks, schools, and police and fire stations.
A better credit rating translates into cheaper borrowing, which theoretically costs taxpayers less. A poor credit rating works the opposite, and coastal communities unwilling to respond to the threat of climate change could feel the impact.
“Resilience to extreme climate events is enhanced by a variety of local, state and federal tools to improve immediate response and long-term recovery from climate shocks,” Wertz said.
Climate shocks, referring to extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, wildfire and heat waves, are forecast to “increase in frequency and intensity over time due to climate change,” according to Moody’s.
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., recently emphasized the significance of Moody’s attention to climate change.
“The financial referees, who score credit risk, are baking climate change risks into the assessment of coastal communities’ creditworthiness. Moody’s is not going to assess this risk in just blue states. Coastal communities in every corner of the country … are facing climate change risk to their citizens and their economies,” Whitehouse said on the U.S. Senate floor on Dec. 6.
Whitehouse, the state’s junior senator, is known on Capitol Hill for testifying with a large green sign with a picture of the Earth and the words, “Time to Wake Up.”
The second-term senator works collaboratively with Fugate on trying to educate coastal communities about the impending threats. He sees a lot of post-storm rebuilding as treating symptoms, in lieu of addressing systematic issues.
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HOME DAMAGE: A cottage in the Misquamicut community of Westerly damaged by “Superstorm” Sandy in 2012. The National Flood Insurance Program paid out more than $35.8 million to policyholders in Rhode Island after the storm. / PBN FILE PHOTO/BRIAN MCDONALD[/caption]
“Beach nourishment, seawalls, bulkheads and rock armaments – you name it – they are all temporary stopgaps that must eventually yield to rising seas. As this happens, there will be a constant drain out of local treasuries as communities have to spend more and more to keep up with the rising seas,” Whitehouse said. “There will be a gradual loss of revenue into local treasuries as valuable oceanfront properties that pay local property taxes are lost.”
Moody’s, for one, agrees.
“In addition to loss of life, and public health and safety, these events present a multitude of challenges,” according to the Moody’s report. “These challenges can result in lower revenue, increased expense, impaired assets, higher liabilities and increased debt.”
FLOOD MAPS
To understand in real terms what Moody’s is talking about, look no further than Hurricane Sandy, which hit Rhode Island in 2012 as a unique tropical-extratropical storm dubbed a “superstorm.”
One estimate shows that 60,000 to 100,000 small businesses were negatively affected by the storm in the nation, and 30 percent failed as a direct result. The U.S. Small Business Administration approved more than a billion dollars in disaster loans.
“Rhode Island’s coast took a real lashing in 2012’s Superstorm Sandy,” Whitehouse said.
He thinks Rhode Island communities have taken strides toward becoming more resilient to sea-level rise. But more education – and assistance from the federal level – is needed, he says.
“Municipalities are trying to grapple with the extent of the risk,” Whitehouse said. “Continuing to encourage awareness at the municipal level and provide resources to make the right predictions and adapt accordingly becomes really [important].”
Part of the problem stems from the embattled National Flood Insurance Program – a perpetually underfunded federal insurance program that covers property owners in designated flood plains. It paid out more than $35.8 million to policyholders in Rhode Island alone after Sandy.
The flood plain maps, drawn by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, are used to determine which properties qualify for the flood insurance. The maps are seen by critics as wildly inaccurate. The criticism grows when areas outside of the flood plains – such as parts of Houston – repeatedly flood during weather events.
The flood maps – which only look at past storms and give no weight to what might happen in the future – helped push CRMC to develop its own tools. Fugate and Whitehouse have since spent nearly two years trying to better inform Rhode Island communities – and others across the country – about the inevitable exposure that comes with building to standards set by FEMA.
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BUILDING PLANS: Dave Caldwell, owner of homebuilder Caldwell & Johnson Inc. and head of the Rhode Island Builders Association, in his North Kingstown office, with building plans for houses he has built. / PBN PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO[/caption]
Dave Caldwell, owner of Caldwell & Johnson Inc., builds high-end homes along the coast in Rhode Island. He’s also the head of the Rhode Island Builders Association. The mapping flaws seem clear to him.
“The FEMA maps are wrong,” he said.
But solving the issue isn’t so clear cut, with cost a key factor.
Sandy ended up costing the federal program more than $9 billion, according to FEMA.
Westerly was hit hardest in Rhode Island. By some estimates the damage exceeded $20 million and impacted 150 homes and 30 businesses. Five years later, the town is still working on some storm-related projects, including dredging 20,000 cubic yards of sand from Winnapaug Pond deposited there during Sandy.
What’s concerning to storm watchers is that Sandy was a relatively small event.
“Sandy was a surge event. Had it had the winds involved behind it like 1938, God only knows what the damage would have been,” Fugate said.
The storm was even smaller in Newport, where the effects are still noticeable. On Oct. 20, the city celebrated the grand opening of the refurbished Newport Gateway Center in Newport, an intermodal transit and tourist hub that suffered structural and flood damage during Sandy.
The R.I. Public Transit Authority paid $6 million to redevelop it, making it more resilient to future storms. How that will hold up over time will be tested, as the CRMC estimates the flood depth in that area of Newport during a 100-year storm, plus 7 feet of sea-level rise, could reach a height greater than 14 feet.
PLAYING THE ODDS
The rebuilding effort after storms has – in many ways – repeated itself since 1938 with few lessons learned in the interim. If anything, flood-prone areas are even more heavily built out.
Fugate blames the cost-sharing that goes into the build-destruction-rebuild cycle as fueling the trend. All Americans help pay for destruction costs, whether through federal relief or the indebted flood insurance program, regardless of where they live.
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SUNKEN CITY: View of a flooded Providence parking lot near the Gaspee Street underpass with cars underwater up to their roofs after Hurricane Carol in 1954. The hurricane led to construction of a hurricane barrier in the 1960s. / COURTESY PROVIDENCE PUBLIC LIBRARY[/caption]
“When there’s a disaster in any municipality or state, it’s the rest of us that pay for it,” Fugate said. “If that town had to pay for the damage recovery after a storm, you better … bet they’d be making different land-use decisions than they’re making today.”
For some people, there’s simply a willingness to play the odds.
In Warwick, following the March 2010 floods, which came after record rainfall, Aram Garabedian, president of Bliss Properties and co-manager of the Warwick Mall, spent millions of dollars to refurbish his shopping center.
The flooding was so great it required a security guard to be retrieved from the structure by boat. Impacted tenants were forced to auction off or throw away damaged inventory.
But the mall and many of its tenants reopened after 144 days, a relatively short turnaround time for such a large property.
Asked whether he’s done anything differently to defend against future flooding events, however, and Garabedian says he’s optimistic it won’t happen again.
“We’ve been open for 47 years and we’ve had one flood,” he said. “I’ll be over 100 years old before the next one comes. … Hopefully I don’t have another in my lifetime.”
But a 100-year storm does not refer to a storm that happens once every 100 years. It means there’s a 1 percent chance of such a storm happening each year.
Spread out across a 30-year mortgage, a home located in a 100-year flood plain has a 26 percent chance of getting flooded at least once during that period, according to the U.S Geological Survey.
This helps explain how Hurricane Harvey delivered the third 500-year flood counted in Houston in the last three years.
And sea-level rise is further complicating the calculous behind these storms, which is partly why Fugate and others are sounding the alarm with urgency.
“It’s almost like you can see something coming at you, but everyone else is oblivious,” he said. “So, we keep trying to raise the alarm bells.”
Eli Sherman is a PBN staff writer. Email him at Sherman@PBN.com, or follow him on Twitter @Eli_Sherman.
