PROVIDENCE – Economic data from May suggests that Rhode Island has likely entered the early stages of a recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro.
Lardaro released the state’s current condition index Wednesday, showing that Rhode Island has a CCI value of 92 in May, indicating a significant expansion year over year.
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A value over 50 indicates expansion and a value below 50 indicates contraction.
The state had a CCI value of 75 in April and a value of 8 in May 2020.
Year over year, 11 of the 12 indicators that constitute the index improved in May, with all values except for government employment improving.
Lardaro said that several of the data points in May were “stunning,” including figures measuring the state’s manufacturing sector, and the state’s overall job gains.
Despite the high value for the state’s year-over-year economic improvement, month to month, only five of the 12 indicators improved, with an overall monthly CCI value of 42, indicating contraction from April.
Overall, Lardaro said the state appears to be “continuing to move toward a period of consistent but uneven expansion” near the end of a pandemic-induced recession.
Year over year changes in Rhode Island’s CCI indicators:
- Government employment declined 1.9%
- U.S. consumer sentiment increased 14.8%
- Single-unit permits increased 41.3%
- Retail sales increased 3.7%
- Employment services jobs increased 26.7%
- Private service production employment increased 15.5%
- Total manufacturing hours increased 22.5%
- The manufacturing sewage increased 4.6%
- The labor force in Rhode Island increased 3.3%
- Benefit exhaustions declined 14.1%
- New claims declined 49.2%
- The state’s unemployment rate declined 7.1 percentage points
