facing a shaky summer season.
The long-range forecast for Rhode Island’s upcoming tourist season seems to mirror the recent weather: gray.
It’s still early, and many hotel and inn operators say they are just now entering the prime advance-booking season for summer months. But the mix of a sputtering economy, war in Iraq and frequent terrorism alerts are, if nothing else, making forecasts cloudy.
Robert Rosenberg, president of the Newport County Convention and Visitors Bureau, said last week that a “sense of uncertainty” seems to be the prevailing concern among Newport’s tourist businesses.
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“The trends we’re seeing this year are very different than anything we’ve ever seen before,” Rosenberg said. “I’ve heard some people say things are horrible, and others are more optimistic. It’s very difficult to predict what will happen.”
Dale Venturini, president of the Rhode Island Hospitality and Tourism Association, said many of the group’s restaurant members have complained of “erratic” business in recent weeks.
“One night they’ll be so jammed that they almost can’t handle it, so the next night they staff up, and then you can shoot a cannon through the place,” Venturini said. “The fact is people just aren’t sure what they’re doing.”
Robert Schmeck, general manager of the Newport Marriott and chairman of the tourism association, said the upcoming season looks like a mixed bag.
The good news: The number of hotel rooms booked for conventions – which the Newport Marriott relies on for about half its business – is on pace with 2002.
But much of that business represents large conventions that have been booked since last year. Group bookings have cooled some in recent months, Schmeck said, and two groups that had planned conventions for the fall have postponed them because of economic conditions.
Meanwhile, the forecast for vacation business looks dimmer, he said. The hotel is projecting a 5- to 15-percent drop in leisure-travel bookings for the summer months. Overall, Schmeck said he expects the hotel’s total sales to fall 3 percent this year.
One upshot for consumers: there are deals to be had.
“Rates have come down significantly,” Schmeck said.
There are, however, a few positive indicators for the tourism industry.
For instance, many tourism officials are predicting a pop in advance bookings in the event of an early end to the war in Iraq – a prospect that appeared to brighten last week.
Also, a survey released April 9 by the Travel Industry Association of America indicates that while international travel among Americans will likely plummet this spring and summer, people won’t shy away from their summer vacations.
“The number of Americans choosing to take a driving vacation within the U.S. may approach all-time highs,” William S. Norman, president of the Travel Industry Association of America, said in a press release. “There’s reason for cautious optimism when it comes to leisure travel.”
That could be an especially good thing for spots like Newport, South County and Cape Cod, which traditionally have been considered “drive destinations.”
“Everybody’s trying to capture the drive market,” said Ann O’Neill, president of the South County Tourism Council. “South County is well-positioned in this economy because we’re affordable, we’re a short drive and we’re close to a lot of other great destinations like Newport, Cape Cod and Mystic.”
Debbie Miller, co-owner of Bed & Breakfast Newport Ltd., which handles bookings for 65 inns and bed-and-breakfasts in Newport, agreed that the drive market will be key.
“It’s looking to me like we could have a really good summer, with people willing to drive in from New York and spend three or four days,” Miller said. She concedes that early bookings have been slow, but “it’s still a little early.”
Indeed, the Travel Industry Association survey says “late booking patterns persist,” and that 46 percent of travelers have not yet started to make their summer travel plans.
A greater emphasis on regional visitors, however, leaves Rhode Island’s tourist businesses more susceptible to bad weather – something that already has marred the spring season.
“If people in New York and Boston hear a horrible forecast on Tuesday or Wednesday, they’re not going to come here,” said Rosenberg of the Newport County CVB. “And for the first time in a long time, we have not been blessed with good weather so far this year.”
The forecasts for New England’s other vacation hot spots don’t look much better.
Through March, reservations for ferry service to Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard were down 6 percent from last year, according to Wayne Lamson of the Steamship Authority, which operates the ferry.
David M. Scott, a Boston-area executive who owns a rental property on Nantucket, said advance bookings this year are slower than they’ve been in recent memory.
“By now I would typically have 10 weeks booked for the summer,” he said last week. “I’ve only got four.”
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