Kevin Breene’s family history in West Greenwich goes back 11 generations, beginning when the rural hamlet had a few hundred residents and was one of the poorest and most desolate towns in the state.
“You go back into the ’60s and ’50s, and we were what the old-timers would say, ‘To hell and gone,’ ” he said.
Now the town has a population of roughly 6,500, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Hardly a metropolis, but Breene, a longtime dairy farmer and the town’s administrator, has watched another change in demographics that few would have predicted 50 years ago.
At $136,629, West Greenwich has had the largest increase in its median household income than any other municipality in Rhode Island, growing from $109,857 in 12 years – almost a 25% jump between 2010 and 2021 adjusted for inflation, census data shows. And this is with the statewide median income at $80,500.
Other municipalities haven’t fared so well by that measurement.
Across the town line in Exeter, there has been a reversal of fortune, with median household incomes sinking more than 23% over the same period, from $132,821 to $102,744.
Census data shows that labor participation in Exeter only grew from 3,814 to 3,899 between 2010 and 2021, despite the town gaining 813 residents. At the same time, the number of people age 65 and older nearly doubled from 589 to 1,181. (Exeter officials did not respond to requests for comment.)
Breene thinks about how these two towns so close geographically have grown apart demographically in the last decade or so. His theory: It’s partly due to Exeter adding more subsidized housing developments in recent years, which made it one of a small number of municipalities to achieve the state’s 10% mandate for affordable units, and it’s resulted in a lower median income for the town.
Meanwhile, biopharmaceutical company Amgen Rhode Island has been adding manufacturing facilities to its sprawling West Greenwich campus, providing more than 800 high-paying jobs.
What stands out to Breene is the 300-unit GrandeVille at Greenwich apartment complex that was constructed just a few hundred feet east of the Amgen campus.
“That added roughly 800 people out of that one place alone,” he said.
Amgen is now expanding and expects to employ approximately 146 additional people by next year, offering a median salary of $77,000, according to R.I. Commerce Corp.
Still, Breene feels that the future is in the trades for anyone interested in increasing their income.
“We have Amgen, but there are not a lot of other big companies here,” he said. “This is what needs to be pushed. I went to college. But we need people to learn how to be plumbers or electricians.”
[caption id="attachment_467534" align="aligncenter" width="1024"]
MIXED FORTUNES
Median household income (adjusted for inflation) has grown at differing rates in Rhode Island communities
between 2010 and 2021, and in some cases has shrank. Here are the municipalities with the
highest and lowest household income growth rates in each of the state’s five counties. / SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU 2010-2021 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY (INCOMES ADJUSTED FOR 2022 INFLATION)[/caption]
NUMBERS GAME
Gov. Daniel J. McKee has put a renewed focus on household income in recent months when he unveiled during his January State of the State address a goal to raise per capita income in Rhode Island by a minimum of $20,000 by 2030.
He dubbed the education and workforce development plans the “Rhode to Prosperity.”
But, if the census data from 2010 to 2021 – the latest year available – is any indication, that prosperity is likely to be very uneven across the state, as wealth flows and shifts into some communities and ebbs in others.
Median household income is a common metric used by analysts to gauge whether a city or town is getting wealthier or poorer. And why certain municipalities experience spikes in median wealth, while others see muted increases or reversals can be harder to gauge, according to observers.
Overall, the state’s median household income grew 8.7% from 2010 to 2021, from $74,078 to $80,500. But in a state divided up into 39 cities and towns, the economic and demographic contrasts among Rhode Island’s municipalities can be stark.
In terms of median income, the wealthiest households continue to be in the suburban towns of East Greenwich ($144,164 in 2021, up 14.1% from $126,341 in 2010) and Barrington ($141,010, up 10.8% from $127,237), but towns such as West Greenwich and Jamestown ($129,849, up 23.6% from $104,992) have seen household income climb at a greater rate.
Meanwhile, eight communities saw their inflation-adjusted median household incomes decline from 2010 to 2021. That includes Smithfield ($94,925, down 2% from $96,847) and North Smithfield ($94,170, down 8% from $102,327). Apart from Exeter, the biggest decline was in Little Compton, which saw its median household income drop 18.8% from $128,001 to $103,888.
Today, a family earning the state’s median household income of $80,500 can’t afford to buy a home anywhere in Rhode Island, according to the HousingWorks RI annual factbook. And the so-called “wealth gap” is growing. The richest 5% of Rhode Island households now have average incomes 12 times the size of the bottom 20%. Close to 12% of residents live in poverty, according to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.
The data suggests income distribution and growth may no longer be tied exclusively to economic growth, according to Jianglin “Dennis” Ding, assistant professor of finance at Roger Williams University, who says there has been a general trend reversal from previous generations when wealth and migration followed commercial development.
Now technological innovation, lopsided property appreciation and shifting workforce norms have made wealth differences between municipalities more inextricably linked to the housing market.
“The movement is often tied to housing availability, particularly affordability, which always depends on personal wealth,” Ding said.
Ding noted what is commonly referred to as the “cohort factor,” where people are more inclined to want to live among their financial peers than be closer to their jobs, which can exacerbate the differences.
“People still move to find better jobs,” he said. “But if you have a median income above $100,000, you will not move to an area where the income is $50,000 to $60,000.”
And perception can become reality. Long a Providence suburb, Cranston, which has overtaken Warwick as the second-most-populous city in Rhode Island, has now become the state’s wealthiest city per capita, with average individual incomes of more than $40,000, compared with approximately $30,000 and $32,000 in Pawtucket and Providence, respectively, according to census data.
Household income shows a similar trend. In Warwick, the average median household income adjusted for inflation only increased $3,071 – or 3.8% – between 2010 and 2021, from $80,278 to $83,349. Meanwhile, Cranston’s median household income increased by $5,234 – or 6.7% – from $78,150 to $83,387, the largest increase of any city in Rhode Island.
That rise in wealth has benefited businesses such as Providence Diamond Co., located in Garden City Center, an upscale retail hub in Cranston.
While many of the store’s customers come from affluent communities such as East Greenwich, a large segment of clients live in Cranston, too, according to Brandon Salomon, director of operations. The store has seen its average sales per customer double in about the last five years, Salomon says.
And the location has only grown more desirable, particularly with the upscale mixed-use plaza called Chapel View being constructed across Sockanossett Cross Road.
“If you give people a center of commerce to go to that is easy to get to, it will thrive,” Salomon said. “And that’s what they did here. And when they developed across the street, that solidified this as a commerce center.”
[caption id="attachment_467535" align="aligncenter" width="1024"]
AFFLUENT ADJUSTMENT: Grow Smart Rhode Island Executive Director Scott Wolf says a disproportionate number of affluent people moving to Rhode Island communities could explain why incomes are going up in those communities.
PBN PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO[/caption]
‘DIFFERENT UNIVERSES’
In many ways, dividing the municipalities up within a state with a population the size of some counties makes little sense.
The Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council long has been sounding the alarm on disparities in fiscal resources among cities and towns by highlighting the vast differences in property taxes, the main source of funding for municipalities.
The proportion of the property tax base comprised of residential property increased in recent decades as the economy shifted from a manufacturing to a service-based economy.
“There is a very dramatic difference in wealth in Rhode Island. Our cities and towns don’t resemble each other. They are different universes,” said Michael DiBiase, RIPEC’s CEO and president. He believes looking at property values can be a better way to measure wealth and prosperity than census data because the values don’t rely on surveyed data.
“That’s real wealth. But we don’t really talk about that,” DiBiase said. “It doesn’t show up among census data regarding income levels. But it’s wealth. You can sell it or give it away.
“We’ve always connected incomes with the physical location of jobs,” DiBiase said. “It’s no longer about driving distance. We are in a time where the location of one’s job is divorced from their income generation.”
RIPEC Research Manager Justine Oliva said that in fiscal 2022, for every person in the state, there was $160,000 on average in taxable gross assessed value, “essentially property wealth per resident” and a good measure to compare taxable property value across municipalities.
Nine communities have more than $250,000 per resident. And four municipalities with the least property wealth – Central Falls, Woonsocket, Pawtucket and Providence – have per-capita values of $26,427, $55,058, $61,390, and $65,123, respectively.
“Residential property now drives resources a town has the way commercial property does not,” Oliva said.
Scott Wolf, executive director of Grow Smart Rhode Island, says that immigration demographics should not be overlooked. If most Rhode Island residents can’t afford to move from Warwick to Jamestown, those coming from poorer countries have even fewer options, at least in the short term, he says.
“We have had a significant increase in the Latino population over the last couple of decades. It would make sense the communities that have had a large influx might have some reduction in median income,” he said. “The wealth gap is already increasing. A lot of the communities that are seeing the biggest appreciation in housing prices are places where low-income people cannot afford to live in.”
Wolf agrees that housing will determine wealth and income trends in the future.
“We are in a compact metropolitan area,” he said “There are a lot of people who live in community A and work in community B.”
Complicating things further is residency, Wolf says.
Household income can be hidden among census data because the census survey data only includes full-time residents. If a resident sells their home to someone from out of state, that household is no longer factored in for income data.
But Wolf says the perception that many new faces in Rhode Island don’t eventually become residents is misguided.
“I live on the East Side of Providence, and there has been a huge influx from people out of state who become residents,” he said. “There is a significant increase in affluent people moving here from larger metropolitan areas, mainly New York and Boston. And if a disproportionate number are settling in some of these communities, then that might explain why incomes are going up.”
There have always been disparities between the East Side and the rest of Providence, a difference that’s evident in the income data. For instance, while the median household income in the Blackstone Boulevard neighborhood stands at $150,000, incomes on average for households in South Providence and Olneyville are $25,000 and $27,000, respectively.
This story playing out in coastal enclaves is different, given their desirability among wealthier second-home buyers.
On Aquidneck Island, Middletown has seen its median household income edge upward by 2.6% since 2010 to $95,348. But Town Councilor Dennis Turano says there has been a big increase in the wealth gap as more out-of-staters purchase second homes there, creating bidding wars and making pricey upgrades that raise property values.
“The [property tax] system assumes [longtime homeowners] should have enough money to pay, but I think many will be forced out of their residences,” Turano said, noting that census data showing a dip in population – 17,081 in 2020 to 16,588 in 2023 – indicates the town has more out-of-state residents living there.
“Just talk to any Realtor and see if you can find a house on the market you can afford,” he said.
AN OPPORTUNITY
Ding says declining household wealth can also lead a municipality down a perilous cycle as wealthier residents flee, affecting local educational resources and local social programs, in turn lessening the likelihood that younger people will have the financial knowledge necessary to begin growing wealth over time.
That’s perhaps why McKee’s Rhode to Prosperity initiative is focused on raising incomes statewide by $20,000 in six years, as well as increasing homeownership and higher education among residents.
So far, the plan is short on detail. A “working document” outlining strategies says the state needs to build on its existing network of adult education, workforce training and credentialing. The plan says experiential learning should be expanded in education and training programs, and registered apprenticeships should be increased.
But despite the governor’s initiative to raise the incomes of Rhode Islanders, doing that through public policy has been easier said than done.
R.I. General Treasurer James Diossa, a former mayor of Central Falls, proposed legislation this year to create a “baby bond” program that would provide a $3,000 trust for each Rhode Island child born into a family receiving Medicaid that would grow until an estimated $12,000 to $15,000 until the child turned 18. The measure appears to have stalled in both chambers.
With its meager population and rural makeup, West Greenwich – a town that still doesn’t have its own post office – may be an outlier.
Roughly 1 out of every 3 employed residents work in manufacturing today, compared with the state average of 1 out of 10. Meanwhile, more than 10% work in the public sector, putting West Greenwich in line with Providence, the seat of the state government, according to the DLT.
“I know a lot of families where the wife is a nurse or a teacher and her husband’s an electrician or runs a construction company,” Breene said. “Well, they’re making $200,000 or more. Nobody is buying a house here for an investment. Most are residents buying their second or third [primary] house and moving up the ladder.”
For cities with larger populations that have seen massive demographic shifts, things may take some time to catch up.
Data shows that longevity within immigrant populations typically leads to an increase in wealth over time, Wolf says.
“One of the intervening variables is how long have these people been in America. The white folks in West Greenwich are fourth or fifth generation, on average. Whereas the Latino folks in Central Falls are the first generation,” Wolf said. “But they are starting to get a foothold in the state, and they are working their way up the economic ladder. A lot of these first-generation immigrants are working their tails off and starting small businesses.”
From change comes opportunity.
From 2010 to 2021, the median household income in Woonsocket flatlined, increasing only from $52,116 to $52,772.
Woonsocket has changed demographically, with its white population declining from approximately 41,000 in 1990 to 28,400 in 2021, during a period that saw its Latino population increase from 1,150 to more than 9,800.
Heidi Pineda, co-owner of Antonito’s Taqueria in Woonsocket, was searching for a house in Rhode Island with her husband, Carlos.
The couple was planning to leave West Roxbury, Mass., a real estate market that has some of the highest prices in the region.
After they found a home they could afford and moved in 2021, a chance drive by a former gas-station-turned-coffee-shop presented the opportunity to expand their restaurant business from its sole location in North Attleboro.
Pineda was aware of the city’s demographics and income levels before making the move.
The menu initially caused skepticism among the Woonsocket locals who were used to bargain meals.
“For us, it was a little scary. I knew Woonsocket had low incomes and we were worried if people were going to be able to pay our prices,” she said. “People would come in and tell us this is not going to work.”
Today, approximately 70% of customers are Woonsocket residents, Pineda says. And the restaurant welcomes visitors from cities as far off as Providence and Warwick.
“We had confidence in our mission, and we have been successful since we’ve opened,” she said. “There is nowhere else we’d rather be.”
