Drop in CO2 justifies tough carbon caps, groups say

A drop in carbon dioxide levels due to the recession and use of cleaner fuels to produce electricity means Democrats should stand firm on a 20 percent cut in U.S. emissions, environmental groups said.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) last week forecast a 5.9 percent drop in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions this year, less than a week after Senate Democrats John Kerry of Massachusetts and Barbara Boxer of California unveiled “cap- and-trade” legislation to cut U.S. emissions 20 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.
The EIA projects carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil and natural gas use at 5.45 billion metric tons, which would be 8.8 percent below the 2005 level of 5.97 billion tons.
“It reinforces our view that the 20 percent target that’s in the Kerry-Boxer bill is certainly achievable,” Dan Lashof, director of the climate center at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a telephone interview. “The level of effort required to achieve a 20 percent reduction is much more modest than had been anticipated.”
In June, the U.S. House passed a cap-and-trade bill that aims to cut emissions 17 percent by 2020. That plan has drawn fire from both Democrats and Republicans in the Senate. Sen. Jay Rockefeller, a Democrat from West Virginia, the second- largest coal producing U.S. state, said the Kerry-Boxer proposal’s 20 percent carbon cut is “unrealistic and harmful.”
To win House approval of his cap-and-trade bill, Rep. Henry Waxman, a California Democrat, settled for a 17 percent cut for 2020 rather than the 20 percent he originally proposed. In his February budget, President Barack Obama called for a 14 percent emissions cut by 2020.
With emissions already below the 2005 levels used as a baseline for the House, Senate and White House cap-and-trade proposals, Kerry and Boxer shouldn’t negotiate away their 20 percent reduction target, Courtney Abrams, a global warming associate for Environment America, said in a telephone interview.
“There should be no backsliding on those strong targets,” Abrams said.
Pressing for a 20 percent carbon cut by 2020 may cost Senate Democrats some of their support from organized labor for a cap-and-trade bill, Robert Baugh, executive director of the Industrial Union Council at the AFL-CIO, said in a telephone interview.
Many unions are willing to support a program for cutting so-called greenhouse gases if it has a starting point of “the economy as it should be functioning, and generally does function, not the situation we are in now,” Baugh said. Still, a number of unions that supported Waxman’s cap-and- trade bill had “some heartburn” over the proposed 17 percent cut and their concern “may have increased” in the more than three months since it passed the House June 26 in a 219-212 vote, Baugh said.
Since June, the nation’s unemployment rate has grown from 9.5 percent to 9.8 percent, according to the Labor Department.
In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said “changes in energy consumption in the industrial sector, a result of the weak economy, and changes in electricity generation sources are the primary factors for the decline” in carbon dioxide emissions this year.
In the electricity sector, the substitution of natural gas for coal and an expected increase in generation from emission- free sources such as wind farms should cut carbon-dioxide output. Lower demand for jet fuel, diesel and home heating oil due to the recession should also reduce carbon-dioxide emissions.
In a supplementary report to the October outlook, the EIA said the consumption of some fossil fuels has fallen faster than the use of others. Lower coal consumption is responsible for 63 percent of this year’s projected 344 million-ton drop in carbon dioxide emissions, with petroleum accounting for 30 percent and natural gas 7 percent.
While natural gas consumption in the industrial sector is forecast to fall 8 percent this year, its use by power plants is growing even as overall electricity demand drops, the EIA said.
Electricity generation from natural gas is expected to grow 5.5 percent this year while coal-fired power drops 11 percent. On average, natural gas produces less than half the amount of carbon dioxide for every megawatt-hour of electricity than coal, according to EIA data.
Natural gas use in the power sector is growing because its average price this year is forecast at $4.45 per million British thermal units, more than 51 percent lower than 2008, the EIA said. At the same time, average coal prices this year are expected to climb 7 percent to $2.21 per million Btu.
“This dramatic decline in the natural gas price relative to coal has led to significant switching from coal to natural gas for electricity generation,” the EIA said.
Further emission reductions are expected this year as electricity sources that don’t emit carbon dioxide increase or maintain their output. &#8226