PROVIDENCE – ISO New England, the region’s independent electric-grid operator, released its Operational Fuel-Security Analysis report this week, showing fuel security will most likely be at risk by 2024-2025 during winter months.
The study ran a series of hypothetical scenarios based on ISO’s predictions for power trends, including the availability of liquefied natural gas, renewable energy, power-plant retirements and emissions restrictions as well as weather and projected power usage.
Seifert Systems Invests in Energy Efficiency to Strengthen Operations
For manufacturers, energy is more than just another operating expense. It plays a critical role…
Learn More
The study concluded New England could be headed for significant levels of emergency actions, including blackouts and public requests for energy conservation. The study also pointed to the vulnerability of the power system to the loss of any one of several key facilities – particularly a natural-gas pipeline compressor station.
“ISO New England conducted this study as a logical extension of our responsibility to ensure power system reliability in New England. The goal was to understand the future implications of several significant trends already affecting grid operations,” said Gordon van Welie, CEO of ISO New England, in a statement, while stressing the study was not a prediction but a tool to inform discussions and plans going forward.
The study found in most scenarios, the grid would be vulnerable to rolling blackouts and will be heavily dependent on the availability of liquefied natural gas, even in the event the region develops significant renewable-energy resources by that time.
The surge of cheaper and cleaner-burning natural gas in recent years, along with the proliferation of renewable-energy generation, is expected to continue to drive the retirement of coal- and oil-fired power plants in the area.
ISO also reported the timeliness and logistics of fuel delivery to the region will play a pivotal role in fuel security. It said timely winter deliveries of natural gas would help mitigate fuel-security risk. The impact and unpredictability of winter weather events complicates this factor, by preventing deliveries, increasing demand and creating situations in which imported natural gas was under-delivered.
There’s a widespread debate in New England over the merits of expanding pipeline capacity throughout the six-state region. Environmentalists are fighting against the infrastructure, arguing it will continue to erode the natural environment, and the high-capital investment isn’t needed as more renewables come online.
Gas advocates, meanwhile, argue expanded pipeline capacity could help keep electricity costs low, and ensure fuel security every day of the year.
The ISO report largely echoes the second argument, showing the risk to fuel security could be mitigated by investment in transmission infrastructure in the region.
“While the study examines a future winter period, New England’s power system operations during the recent cold spell highlighted the importance of fuel security to reliability,” added van Welie. “Due to the gas infrastructure constraints and the high price of gas, the region relied heavily on oil-fired generation to keep the lights on, causing fuel inventories to be rapidly depleted and straining the oil supply chain. As oil inventories began to run low and storm conditions made fuel deliveries difficult, the ISO was forced to limit the operation of certain oil units to conserve fuel until gas became more widely available.”
The report also said duel-fuel capacity generators would be key in mitigating security risks, but noted permitting for construction and emissions is “difficult.”
ISO noted the combination of higher levels of natural gas, imports and renewable energy is its most positive outlook scenario it studied and could minimize the stress on the system. This would still require delivery assurances of natural gas and electricity imports as well as transmission expansion.
ISO said the organization will study its findings with stakeholders to determine whether operational or market-design measures are needed to address the region’s fuel-security risk.
