If you don’t catch on at the top of Rhode Island’s labor market, you may slip all the way to the bottom.
That’s because the middle of the job market is comparatively stagnant, according to a Providence Business News analysis of state labor statistics. PBN examined federal job data and the R.I. Department of Labor and Training’s annual Occupational Employment Survey results dating back to 2007 and the department’s latest biennial Occupational Projections report covering the period from 2016 to 2026.
Current and projected trends in the DLT statistics for Rhode Island (detailed in accompanying charts) show the occupations that have added the most jobs in recent years – and those expected to add the most in coming years – mainly are those at the top and at the bottom of the pay scale. Meanwhile, occupations in between – those with hourly wages between $19 and $31 – mainly are those projected to add the fewest jobs. The numbers cover both full-time and part-time positions.
Among the 22 major occupational categories, half of the 10 projected to add the most jobs are in low-paying fields with hourly wages below $19. And four are in high-paying fields with hourly wages above $31. Only one of the top 10 growth fields – construction – falls into the middle-wage category.
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Personal care, tech grow;
production jobs shrink
The field that grew at the fastest pace from 2007 to 2017 was personal care and services, which includes personal-care aides, child care workers, fitness instructors and hairdressers. The field with the second-highest growth rate – computer and mathematical – includes software developers, computer-systems administrators, computer-systems analysts and computer support specialists.
Among the fields that grew at the slowest pace were life, physical and social sciences, which lost jobs over the 10-year period. That includes psychologists, environmental scientists, chemists and chemical technicians, and urban and regional planners. Another field with lost jobs was production, which includes assemblers and fabricators, production workers and their supervisors, machinists and welders.
By Scott Blake
*Statistics include all parts of Rhode Island, except Hopkinton, New Shoreham and Westerly. Statistics also include the following parts of southeast Massachusetts: Attleboro, Bellingham, Blackstone, Fall River, Millville, Plainville, Rehoboth, Seekonk, Somerset, Swansea and Westport. / Source: R.I. Department of Labor and Training/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics[/caption]
Conversely, half of the 10 categories projected to add the fewest jobs are in middle-wage fields – those paying between $19 and $31 an hour.
While the statistics show Rhode Island essentially has recovered from the recession nearly a decade ago, they also reflect a gradual national trend – widening income inequality and shrinking of the middle-class, according to experts on the economy and labor statistics.
“If you don’t have the [high-level] skills and education, you’re going to be left behind,” said Edinaldo Tebaldi, economics professor and coordinator of the Center for Global and Regional Economic Studies at Bryant University in Smithfield.
Meanwhile, wages at the top of the job market have been growing much faster than wages in the middle and bottom, according to a study by the Economic Policy Institute, a nonprofit think tank in Washington, D.C. Released in September, the study was based on the Current Population Survey, a monthly survey of 60,000 U.S. households done by the federal Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
It found that, when adjusting for inflation, high-wage workers are paid 47 percent more today than in 1979, while middle-wage workers make 17 percent more and low-wage workers make 9 percent more.
“For three decades after World War II, wages grew rapidly across the board,” according to the study. “But since the end of the 1970s, wages have grown slowly for most of the workforce, and the gap between the best-paid workers and the rest of the workforce has widened significantly.”
In Rhode Island, Kathleen Greenwell, the DLT’s administrator of labor market information, acknowledged that statistical patterns in the reports suggest a market in which those lacking a high degree of expertise and training required for high-paying fields could find fewer employment opportunities in middle-wage fields, and thus be more apt to fall into low-paying jobs.
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Building hope for
construction growth
Construction is expected to make a significant turnaround in the decade that began in 2016. Employment in the field was basically flat in the previous decade, which started with a recession and significant job losses before the ongoing recovery.
During the past decade, unemployment in construction grew to about 20 percent, according to John Marcantonio, executive director of the Rhode Island Builders Association.
Annual housing starts statewide fell to about 580 but have since recovered to a rate of about 1,000 per year. He said Rhode Island needs about 3,000 housing starts a year for the market to be at “equilibrium” – a balance between supply and demand.
In another good sign for the job market, architectural and engineering jobs are expected to grow by double-digits by 2026. Those jobs had a median hourly wage of $39.12 as of last year.
At the other end of the spectrum, office and administrative support is the only employment sector projected to lose jobs. That’s mainly due to the widespread use of office and personal computers, digital filing and wireless communications, according to Edinaldo Tebaldi, economics professor at Bryant University.
By Scott Blake / Source: R.I. Department of Labor and Training[/caption]
However, she noted, there are limitations to the data.
Information for the DLT’s annual Occupational Employment Survey is compiled from surveys the department sends out each year to various employers. Only a small but “statistically accurate” percentage of employers are surveyed, Greenwell said. Employers are selected based on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics guidelines designed to produce a sample of employers of different sizes in each field. The numbers are then extrapolated to represent all employers in each field.
The survey asks employers about their number of employees, job descriptions and hourly wages or annual pay.
The Occupational Employment Surveys published by the federal government from data supplied by the state covers the Providence-Warwick-Fall River metropolitan statistical area. That covers all parts of Rhode Island, except Hopkinton, Westerly and New Shoreham at the south end of the state. It also covers most of the population centers in neighboring Bristol County, Mass.
The DLT also produces the Occupational Projections report once every two years. It covers a somewhat different region than the Occupational Employment Surveys. The projections cover the entire state, but not parts of Bristol County, Mass. The DLT only does projections for Rhode Island alone and no neighboring areas because, unlike the annual surveys, the DLT isn’t required by the federal government to do projections for the Providence metro area, which spills over into southeastern Massachusetts, Greenwell said.
The DLT does not project wages – only the number of jobs that will be gained or lost. The DLT wage figures come from its latest Occupational Wage Survey, done last year.
Department analysts make the projections by looking back three years at the Occupational Employment Survey results, as well as examining federal labor statistics to track national trends and employment patterns that may affect Rhode Island.
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Low-paying jobs top employers in Providence area
In all five regional metros, the office and administrative support job cluster is the largest. However, employment in that field is expected to remain relatively flat across the region in coming years, with job losses in many places, including Rhode Island. These jobs generally are at the high end of the low-wage fields.
In Rhode Island, the median wage in office and administrative support is $17.94 an hour. The field includes customer-service representatives, bookkeepers, receptionists, tellers, and clerks of all kinds.
A notable difference between Greater Providence and the Boston area is the high ranking of the low-paying food preparation and serving sector in the former. That sector is second in Greater Providence but doesn’t rank in the top five in size in the Boston area.
By Scott Blake / Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics[/caption]
Greenwell said analysts also consider the larger or more significant new companies and businesses that have been approved or have started construction to open in Rhode Island.
“It involves a lot of judgment,” she added.
Unlike conventional labor statistics, the occupational reports don’t have a category for manufacturing. However, it has a production category that covers many jobs found in manufacturing. Production, for example, falls into the middle of the pack in terms of job creation – projected to add 1,362 jobs in the Providence metro by 2026. The median wage in production is $16.93 an hour.
One of Rhode Island’s notable sources of middle-wage manufacturing jobs is the Quonset Business Park, which covers more than 3,000 acres in North Kingstown. The park is home to about 200 companies with about 12,000 full-time and part-time employees. And the park expects those numbers to grow in coming years, said Steven King, managing director of the Quonset Development Corp., which oversees the park.
An example of the growth is at General Dynamics Electric Boat, which accounts for about 4,500 jobs in the park and plans to add about 1,300 more within the next five years. Many of those positions will involve manufacturing for the company’s work on the next generation of nuclear submarines for the U.S. military, King said.
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ABOVE-AVERAGE WAGES: From left, Matt Roy, carpenter journeyman, Local 330, and Tim Adams, carpenter journeyman, foreman, install a door at the construction site of the Hilton Homeward Suites at 5 Exchange St. in Providence. As of last year, Rhode Island construction jobs paid a median hourly wage of $24.64, more than $5 an hour above the state’s overall hourly median wage of $19.01. / PBN PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO[/caption]
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Will middle-wage earners get squeezed out in R.I.?
Of the top 20 individual occupations expected to add the most jobs statewide by 2026, 12 have median hourly wages below $19, led in jobs by food preparers and servers at $10.84.
Five of the job fields would be considered high paying, with median hourly wages of $31 or above, topped in wages by financial managers at $63.83.
The remaining three occupations fall into the middle-wage category, with median hourly wages between $19 and $31, with plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters leading the way in wages at $27.71 per hour.
The median wages in the chart are for 2017 and are for Rhode Island only.
By Scott Blake / Source: R.I. Department of Labor and Training[/caption]
CONSTRUCTION COMEBACK?
Meanwhile, another saving grace for the workforce may be the construction trades. DLT statistics show Rhode Island’s construction industry is projected to make a comeback. Those in the industry say the comeback is already underway. After seeing flat employment in recent years, construction is expected to add 3,048 jobs in Rhode Island by 2026 – more than any other field, except food preparation and serving, according to DLT statistics.
And construction jobs – including carpenters, welders, plumbers, and other occupations that don’t require an expensive college degree – pay above-average wages. As of last year, Rhode Island construction jobs paid a median hourly wage of $24.64. That was more than $5 an hour above the state’s overall hourly median wage of $19.01.
With an aging workforce, the construction trades also are in search of a new generation of workers, according to industry leaders.
The downside to the projected growth is that the jobs almost always are not permanent, and they are more vulnerable to fluctuations in the economy and government contracting.
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health care leads the pack
Twelve of the 30 highest-paying occupations in the Providence-Warwick metro area are in health care, including nine of the top 10. Leading the way are obstetricians and gynecologists, with average annual pay of $279,540.
Most of the occupations on the list are highly specialized, with just a small number of jobs in the area, except for general managers, financial managers and physicians, each with 2,000 jobs or more.
Next come lawyers, medical and health service managers, and computer and information system managers – all with 1,200 jobs or more.
By Scott Blake
(Statistics cover all parts of Rhode Island except Hopkinton, New Shoreham, and Westerly. Statistics also cover the following parts of southeast Massachusetts: Attleboro, Bellingham, Blackstone, Fall River, Millville, Plainville, Rehoboth, Seekonk, Somerset, Swansea and Westport.)
*Wage information for the state’s 200 anesthesiologists was not available, however, their annual pay is presumed to be at least as high as that for nurse anesthetists. / Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and R.I. Department of Labor and Training[/caption]
The recession created pent-up demand for housing starts in Rhode Island, which are expected to increase in coming years, said David Caldwell Jr., president of the Rhode Island Builders Association. Meanwhile, he said, the construction industry is expecting a boost as the state and municipalities undertake more than $250 million in public school renovations, as well as a potential increase in federal funding for road and bridge repairs.
“Rhode Island has deferred a lot of infrastructure maintenance,” Caldwell explained. “You can only do that for so long before it has to happen.”
The recession also took its toll on Rhode Island’s labor market in other ways. The state’s labor force now has about 10,000 fewer workers than it did before the recession, according to statistics compiled by Tebaldi. That’s made it difficult for employers to find enough qualified workers for certain occupations, to a point where it could hold back job growth.
“The labor market is very tight and it’s hard to create jobs,” he said.
HEALTH CARE
That hasn’t stopped a bulwark of Rhode Island’s economy, health care, from adding jobs. Despite the recession, the number of health care practitioners and technicians – including physicians, nurses, pharmacists and therapists – grew by more than 8,000 in the Providence metro from 2007 to 2017, state Occupational Employment Surveys show.
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Secretarial jobs to see biggest loss
Of those occupations expected to lose the most jobs in Rhode Island by 2026, 11 of the top 20 are low paying, with median hourly wages below $19.
The relatively good news is that only four of those low-paying occupations are expected to lose more than 100 jobs, led by office clerks’ expected loss of 303 jobs. Slight losses are predicted among the other six low-paying jobs.
The projections, which include wages for 2017, are more troubling for middle-wage jobs.
Six of the occupations expected to shrink the most are middle-wage earners, with median wages between $19 and $31 an hour, led by secretaries and administrative assistants’ projected loss of 571 jobs.
Moreover, middle-wage jobs compose four of the six occupations projected to lose the most jobs.
Meanwhile, only one high-paying occupation – computer programmers – landed on the list, which Edinaldo Tebaldi, economics professor and coordinator of the Center for Global and Regional Economic Studies at Bryant University, attributes to advances in technology and outsourcing.
By Scott Blake / Source: R.I. Department of Labor and Training[/caption]
Moreover, Rhode Island, not counting Bristol County, Mass., is expected to add more than 1,800 health care practitioners and technicians by 2026. Those jobs paid a median hourly wage of $35.41 last year. Registered nurses, with an hourly median of $36.51, should account for a big chunk of the growth. The state is projected to add 860 registered nurse jobs by 2026, state statistics show.
A leader in Rhode Island health care is Lifespan Corp., the state’s largest private employer with a workforce of more than 15,000. The Providence-based nonprofit runs Rhode Island Hospital, Hasbro Children’s Hospital, The Miriam Hospital, Bradley Hospital, Newport Hospital, and Gateway Healthcare.
The company grew its workforce by about 25 percent from 2009 to 2017, according to Lisa Abbott, Lifespan’s senior vice president of human resources. Lifespan then added 450 positions in its 2018 fiscal year, which ended Sept. 30. And it is now adding 400 more positions for its current fiscal year, which started Oct. 1. Most of those jobs are clinical, meaning they are for patient care rather than administration.
The main reason for the growth? Despite some belt-tightening, Lifespan has remained profitable and increased its market share, said Lifespan spokesman David Levesque.
Abbott said it’s a challenge to find enough good recruits for entry-level nursing jobs, but Lifespan has programs to address that. On the administrative side of the business, technology-related positions are in high demand, primarily because of the growth of electronic medical records. Losing talent to the higher-paying Greater Boston job market remains a concern, but Lifespan focuses on providing a good working environment, so Rhode Islanders won’t be tempted to make the commute north.
“With compensation, we’ll never compete with Boston,” she added, “but we make sure they’re rewarded” in other ways.
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It pays to be a lawyer, especially in Boston area
When it comes to the highest-paying job fields in the regional metro areas, the same five stand out – though not necessarily in the same order.
In each of the five metros, management is the top-paying field. The management field includes CEOs, but bigger parts of the cluster are general managers, financial managers, medical and health-service managers, and computer and information systems managers.
In Greater Providence and the Boston area, the biggest difference in median hourly wage is in the legal field. In the former, it is $35.31, good for fifth highest. In the Boston area, the median hourly in the same field jumps more than $13 to $48.92. That’s the second-highest paying field in that region.
Greater Boston has the highest overall pay in southern New England, followed by Greater Hartford, Conn., which has a high concentration of white-collar, insurance-industry jobs. The overall wage level in Greater Providence is close to those in the Worcester and Springfield areas in central and western Massachusetts, respectively.
In terms of market size, Greater Providence is closest to the Hartford area, with about 567,620 and 581,750 jobs, respectively. The totals cover all types of full-time and part-time jobs.
The Providence-Warwick metro area covers all of Rhode Island except for Hopkinton, Westerly and New Shoreham at the south end of the state. It also covers most population centers in neighboring Bristol County, Mass., including Fall River, Attleboro, Seekonk and Swansea.
By Scott Blake
*Total is incomplete as no employment number was given for two of 31 occupations. / Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics[/caption]
Saul Kaplan, former executive director of the state’s economic-development agency, said Rhode Island leaders seem to be on the right track in focusing job-creation efforts on the health care and higher education sectors, in concert with local hospitals and universities. That should help create more high-paying jobs and make up ground in that regard on neighboring Massachusetts and Connecticut.
“There [are] some good things happening,” he said. “We just need to make it happen faster.”
Kaplan, Business Innovation Factory founder and chief catalyst, said creating more high-paying jobs should naturally create more middle-wage jobs.
“We have to make sure there are jobs on every part of the [economic] ladder,” he added. “I think [the middle] fills when the whole economy grows.”
Scott Blake is a PBN staff writer. Email him at Blake@PBN.com.
