PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island’s economy expanded for the 13th consecutive month in April, however there is evidence of some slowing, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said on Friday.
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index he produces each month had a year over year value of 67 in April, down from 75 is has been each month since January. It marks a continued expansion, but a step down from the final three months of 2021 when the value sat at 92.
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A CCI value above 50 indicates expansion, while a value below 50 indicates contraction.
Unlike March, where nine of 12 indicators that comprise the index improved year over year, several of the indicators that failed to improve had very large declines in April, most notably U.S. consumer sentiment, single-unit permits, retail sales and the state’s labor force. Only two of the five leading indicators contained in the CCI improved and exceeded difficult comparisons, total manufacturing hours and a healthy decline in new unemployment claims.
“Part of this is statistical – the ‘comps’ from a year ago have now become more difficult,” Lardaro said. “However, Rhode Island’s links to the national economy are also critical to its overall economic performance, and to some extent what we are beginning to see is national weakness already impacting us.”
The April monthly CCI rose to its highest value in some time to 92, compared to 67 in March. Lardaro said that if such monthly strength persists, Rhode Island could see less of a downside to its economic activity in the coming months, although it is far too early to tell.
“The question remains as to whether Rhode Island will resume its [first in, last out] status as the national economy weakens,” Lardaro said. “If so, Rhode Island ’s economy could begin to slow meaningfully by mid to late 2023.”
Year-over-year CCI indicator performance in April:
- Government employment increased 1.8%
- U.S. consumer sentiment declined 26.3%
- Single-unit permits declined 34.1%
- Retail sales rose 10.8%
- Employment services jobs decreased 5.2%
- Private services production employment rose 3.9%
- Total manufacturing hours increased 5%
- The state’s manufacturing wage rose 13%
- The state labor force declined 0.4%
- Benefit exhaustions declined 59.3%
- New unemployment claims declined 88.5%
- The state’s unemployment rate declined 2.9 percentage points.
