Home Economy Economic Activity Lardaro: R.I. remains in a recession following March data

Lardaro: R.I. remains in a recession following March data

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PBN Staff

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05/11/2026

Lardaro-1-1-1-1 — RHODE ISLAND remains in a recession, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. / PBN FILE PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO

PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island is stuck in recession mode, University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index number, developed from a mix of several economic metrics stood at 42 for March, the same result seen every month since last August, except for February. CCI value

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PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island is stuck in recession mode, University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index number, developed from a mix of several economic metrics stood at 42 for March, the same result seen every month since last August, except for February. CCI value above 50 indicates an economic expansion compared to the previous year while a value below 50 indicates economic contraction. The data for February gave a CCI value of 17, but Lardaro dismissed that data for that month, which which was released later due to the federal government shutdown. Just like what happened in March 2025, the CCI values returned to normal the following month after all the CCI index indicators failed to improve, he said. "I do not believe what the data [in February] are showing and view it largely as ‘noise.’ " Lardaro said. “Rhode Island’s economy did not fall off a cliff in February of this year, as it also did not in March of 2025.” In March, the CCI index returned to a more realistic picture of Rhode Island’s economy, Lardaro said, with five of 12 indicators improving from a year ago. “In March, we essentially returned to where we have been for several months now, with some momentum, but with positives continuing to be outweighed by negatives, leading to a continuing contraction of CCI values,” Lardaro said. “Sadly, my ongoing conclusion that Rhode Island is in a recession continues.” Improvement was confined to two areas in March: retail sales and total manufacturing hours, Lardaro said. However, the state's labor market continued to show weakness in March. The labor force fell by 7,500 year over year while resident employment dropped 8,200 at the same time. “As both the labor force participation rate and the employment rate fell in March, the participation-adjusted unemployment rate surged to 6.9%, hardly a comforting result," Lardaro said. “Payroll employment also declined relative to last March, but 'only' 1,300, as job losses continue to outpace job gains.” Manufacturing wages, which had been declining for two months, rose slightly in March while benefit exhaustions, reflective of long-term unemployment fell by 3.5% year over year. New claims, failed to improve for a second consecutive moth, Lardaro added. Private service producing employment fell for the fourth time in six months and government employment has now failed to improve since last May, as both federal and local government employment declined, Lardaro said. Year-over-year CCI indicators in March:

Employment-service jobs decreased by 2.6%.

Government employment decreased by 1.5%.

Labor force decreased by 1.3%.

Total manufacturing hours increased by 6.9%.

Manufacturing wages increased 0.1%.

New unemployment claims increased by 1.2%.

Private-service-producing employment decreased by 0.2%.

Retail sales increased by 4.5%.

Single-unit permits increased by 8.3%.

Unemployment benefit exhaustions decreased by 3.5%.

Unemployment rate increased 0.2%.

U.S. consumer sentiment decreased 6.6%.