Home Economy Economic Activity Lardaro: R.I.’s March economy the worst since the Great Recession

Lardaro: R.I.’s March economy the worst since the Great Recession

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PBN Staff

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05/12/2025

Lardaro-1-1-1 (1) — RHODE ISLAND had its worst monthly economic showing in March since the Great Recession in 2008, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said May 12 in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. /PBN FILE PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO

PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island’s March economic performance was its worst since the Great Recession in 2008, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index, which Lardaro publishes each month, has a contractual value of 16, with only two of its 12 economic indicators

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PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island's March economic performance was its worst since the Great Recession in 2008, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro said Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report. The index, which Lardaro publishes each month, has a contractual value of 16, with only two of its 12 economic indicators improving from February. A CCI value above 50 indicates an economic expansion while a value below 50 indicates economic contraction. “Rhode Island’s March data wasn’t just bad, it was god awful,” Lardaro said. “Not only did this continue the weakness from the fourth quarter of last year, it amplified it to a level I didn’t think we would see unless we were in a full-blown recession. I would be amazed if Rhode Island is not currently in the early stages of a full-blown recession.” He cautions, however, that, “It is possible that March’s data is just a fluke and not representative of where our state’s economy finds itself. Remember the cardinal rule of economy watching: Never place too much weight on an indicator value for a single time period.” But he also warns March’s results came before the tariff war, dashing any hopes of getting a boost from the national economy in April. “Rhode Island’s manufacturing sector had already been showing signs of weakness prior to the tariff war, notably a trend of a declining manufacturing wage, a rarity to say the least, and declines in both manufacturing employment and the workweek,” Lardaro said. “Remember, this is the most cyclically sensitive part of Rhode Island’s economy.” Total manufacturing hours declined in March for the fourth consecutive month, while the manufacturing wage saw its sixth consecutive decline. New claims, which reflects layoffs increased for the ninth time since March 2024 while benefit exhaustions rose sharply at 44.4%. Retail sales, a key CCI indicator, managed to eke out a 0.2% year-over-year increase in March after falling in February. Private-service-providing employment was the other bright spot in March, Lardaro said. That sector rose 0.6% a year ago. Rhode Island’s labor force, participation rate and employment rate all fell in March relative to a year ago. Lardaro notes the state’s employment rate has fallen on a yearly basis every month since June 2024 and resident employment has been flat or declining for three consecutive months. Year-over-year CCI indicators in March:

Employment-service jobs decreased by 1.3%.

Government employment decreased by 0.3%.

Labor force decreased by 0.1%.

Manufacturing hours (total) decreased by 3.2%.

Manufacturing wages decreased by 1.8%.

New unemployment claims increased by 0.7%.

Private-service-producing employment increased by 0.6%.

Retail sales increased by 0.2%.

Single-unit permits decreased by 7.4%.

Unemployment benefit exhaustions increased by 44.4%.

Unemployment rate increased by 0.7%.