Crowded stores and stronger-than-expected sales have analysts predicting that the rest of the holiday shopping season will be a banner one despite higher prices, rising inflation and nagging COVID-19 concerns.
“This holiday season was very interesting,” said Farbod Farhadi, associate professor of business management at Roger Williams University. “A number of forces were in play … But we knew consumers were not going to let the recession and pandemic overshadow their plans.”
Farhadi said it was a “battle of forces” – inflation has sapped consumers’ buying power, but it's clear that has been overcome by consumers’ yearning to shop for the holidays.
The National Retail Federation had forecast that holiday retail sales during November and December will grow between 6% and 8% over 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
So far, the early sales figures are beating that projection.
Overall, national retail sales on Black Friday rose 12% compared with the same day a year ago, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse. In-store sales increased by 12% and online sales by 14%, the report said. Adobe Analytics estimated that a record $9.1 billion was spent on Black Friday online sales, up from $8.9 billion in 2021, while consumers spent $11.3 billion online on Cyber Monday, 5.8% more than last year.
Those numbers are making those in the local retail industry giddy.
“I think the traffic that we've seen … has really exceeded our expectations and we're delighted to see it,” said Faith Lockhart, marketing manager at upscale Garden City Center in Cranston.
The Warwick Mall also has seen high traffic, giving General Manager Domenic Schiavone the confidence to predict that the remainder of the shopping season will be strong.
“I did not expect it to be turned out the way it did,” Schiavone said of the crowds on Black Friday.
At Providence Place mall, senior general manager John Zilliken – who said foot traffic on Black Friday was up about 3% from last year – also noted a shift in the vibe among shoppers this season.
“I think the sense of friends, family and community was very prominent,” Zilliken said. “There wasn’t a lot of individual shoppers … it was three or four people together, going to the store and carrying bags.”
Retailers should enjoy the moment while it lasts. Farhad said economic realities will likely kick in next month, cooling shoppers' desire to spend.
Maybe for that reason, chain stores have continued a trend of extending the holiday season that took hold in 2021, with special discounts that started weeks before Black Friday at retail giants Target Corp. and Walmart Inc., and online at Amazon.com Inc.
Schiavone said some vendors at Warwick Mall launched their holiday deals at the beginning of November, a choice that led to steady traffic for the entire month. Similarly, Lockhart said many tenants at Garden City Center received their inventory for the season in late October, which allowed them to kick off holiday sales earlier, too.
It’s a strategy that will likely become the norm, Farhadi said.
“Usually it [holiday shopping] starts after Thanksgiving, but this year Thanksgiving was the midpoint,” Farhadi said. “They smoothed out the demand over the holiday season.”
For small, independent businesses, competing with weekslong deals has been a challenge.
“It used to be a specific day when businesses highlight a sale and now businesses are having three-week-long Black Friday sales,” said Karen Beebe, owner of the fashion boutique Queen of Hearts in downtown Providence. “It just makes me reevaluate Black Fridays going forward.”
Beebe said Black Friday was “terrible” for sales, with customers’ attention on bigger retailers with vast stock. Then on Small Business Saturday, her store registered its busiest day on record.
That didn't surprise Farhadi.
“Because of all the experiences with the shortages, people are going to opt with known brands, so a lot of the shopping will be from [big] chains" on Black Friday, Farhadi said. “Not that many people are going to go to local, small stores.”
For Jasmine Mendez, owner and founder of Thrive Cakery, Black Friday was disappointing. Thrive Cakery does not have a fixed brick-and-mortar location, but Mendez decided to open a pop-up kiosk at Providence Place, setting up shop on the second floor. Despite her expectations, the three-day Thanksgiving weekend was slow.
Still, Beebe and Mendez remain hopeful about the rest of the season. At Queen of Hearts, holiday ornaments and food products – such as jam, honey and hot sauces – have been particularly popular gift choices so far this season. And for Mendez, her cookie roulettes and cookie samplers are popular products for the holidays.
“I’m hoping it won’t be a huge dip in purchases, but the key will be offering unique products and highlighting what it is that makes our business special or different,” Mendez said.
Claudia Chiappa is a PBN staff writer. Contact her at Chiappa@PBN.com.
