PROVIDENCE – By the year 2045, $566.5 million worth of property in Rhode Island could be at risk for chronic flooding due to sea-level rise, according to a report from the Union of Concerned Scientists this week.
The figures for 2045 are the report’s “high scenario,” or the largest of three possible scenarios for sea-level rise projected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Chronic flooding was defined as flooding that occurs 26 times per year or more.
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UCS used data from Zillow on property locations and values and cross-referenced it with NOAA projections.
Within 30 years, 899 properties in Rhode Island would be at risk for chronic flooding, impacting 1,690 Rhode Islanders and putting $7.2 million in property tax at risk. By 2100, the number of impacted properties could potentially increase to 6,660, at a value of $3.6 billion. The report’s intermediate scenario had 3,371 properties at risk with $25 million in property tax at risk.
In Massachusetts, in the 2045 NOAA high-level scenario, 6,878 properties would be at risk for chronic flooding, properties that command a market value of $4.1 billion. Flooding would impact 13,824 residents in the Bay State and put $37 million in property tax at risk.
More than 310,000 properties in the United States could be vulnerable to chronic flooding by 2045, according to UCS’ report, properties that have a market value of $117.4 billion. By the turn of the century, that number, still in NOAA’s high-level scenario, would balloon to 2.4 million properties at a market value of $912 billion.
Florida had the most at-risk homes in the report, followed by New Jersey.
It is also worth noting the sea-level rise risk calculations did not include the dangers of storm surge, to which Rhode Island is particularly vulnerable.
Chris Bergenheim is the PBN web editor.
