Braving long lines, freezing temperatures and swarms of shoppers for the sake of holiday shopping holds even less appeal than usual in the midst of a pandemic, but retailers big and small are reporting strong sales numbers despite a still-raging virus and heightened restrictions.
The National Federation of Retailers predicted a 3.6% to 5.2% year-over-year increase in holiday sales this year. In a statement explaining its forecast, which includes one-third of profits coming from online or nonstore sales, NRF pointed to the psychological factor of consumers wanting to celebrate after a devastating year. And while the industry was ravaged by mandated shutdowns during the earliest months of the pandemic, numbers have rebounded, with October sales up 10.6% over 2019, the federation said.
Deloitte & Touche LLP in its 2020 holiday retail survey painted a slightly less-rosy picture, projecting a 3.3% decline in year-over-year sales specifically for Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, which fell on Nov. 30.
But experiences across retailer categories and sizes vary widely, including in Rhode Island, where a number of small businesses boasted record sales numbers.
Among them is Frog & Toad LLC, which brought in double the revenue through online and curbside pickup sales on Thanksgiving weekend compared with 2019, according to co-owner Asher Schofield. The novelty gift store made a splash early in the pandemic with its “Knock it Off” T-shirts, based on Gov. Gina M. Raimondo’s iconic press-briefing admonishment. Sales have continued to surge, despite the two brick-and-mortar locations remaining closed. Schofield credited savvy online marketing and an increased “buy local” sentiment among consumers.
“We’ve definitely seen a lot more interest from consumers in supporting local and small businesses this year,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF’s senior director of industry and consumer insights.
Larger national and regional stores with Rhode Island locations are doing well, too. Warwick Mall, which is locally owned but houses big-name retailers such as Target and J.C. Penney, saw significant Black Friday foot traffic, according to Domenic Schiavone, the mall’s general manager.
While Schiavone could not share sales numbers for mall tenants, he named online ordering and curbside pickup as a major revenue source for retailers. Earlier rollouts of holiday deals – some as early as October – also helped give businesses a boost this year.
Still, Schiavone said the mall and its tenants were “feeling the impact” of the pandemic, a function of changing consumer behavior and heightened state restrictions.
The three-week “pause” has further limited foot traffic, Schiavone said, though he did not fault the state for imposing additional restrictions.
“We’re all just trying to balance lives with livelihood,” he said.
That retailers have been allowed to remain open during the pause with reduced capacity – as opposed to the state’s first shutdown when all nonessential businesses had to close their doors – reflects the state’s effort to support its small businesses, said Kristin Urbach, executive director for the North Kingstown Chamber of Commerce.
But whether strong holiday sales will be enough to offset losses from earlier this year, including among the many major brands that have filed for bankruptcy, it’s too early to tell, said Kate Ferrara, principal in Deloitte’s Risk & Financial Advisory practice.
Nancy Lavin is a PBN staff writer. Contact her at Lavin@PBN.com.
