Storm potential not getting businesses’ attention

Lori Adamo thought that after the record March flooding business owners would pay heed to the wrath that Mother Nature can unleash. In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) cautioned that 2010 could bring the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. After the announcement Adamo, whose company helps businesses plan for disasters, received not one call.
“I would have hoped after the flooding they would be more proactive but what I’m seeing in my business and the industry in general is that there’s this trend to want to bury their heads,” said Adamo, president of Code Red in Cranston.
If the March flooding is any indication, a hurricane could be devastating. The floods caused at least 240 businesses to close and put 4,854 people out of work, according to the R.I. Department of Labor and Training. Most businesses bounced back, but most of the Warwick Mall flooded by the Pawtuxet River remains closed and some businesses may never recover.
But what really worries forecasters is that the March flooding could serve as a mere prelude to a significant tropical storm or hurricane striking Rhode Island. During the entirety of March, multiple rainstorms delivered about 19 inches of rain in some parts of the state, bringing much of Rhode Island to its knees. A hurricane could dump about 14 inches in less than two days, said David Vallee, a hydrologist in charge of the Northeast River Forecast Center for the National Weather Service.
It already happened in August 1955. In one day tropical storm Diane dumped about 18.5 inches of rain on Westport and almost as much on the northern part of Rhode Island. Nothing says it can’t happen again and chances are good it will, forecasters say.
“We have gotten off scot-free since 56 summers ago,” Vallee said.
NOAA does not make landfall predictions as part of its annual hurricane season forecast. Vallee and other forecasters say it’s impossible to predict where hurricanes will land months in advance of their formation. But the ingredients for a busy season are there.
The water in the south Pacific is cooler than normal this year in a weather pattern forecasters call La Niña. That leads to calm winds over the Atlantic. And a calm atmosphere provides space for storms to form and grow in strength.
“Rhode Island particularly is long overdue for a big storm and we need to be ready,” said Isaac Ginis, an oceanography professor at the University of Rhode Island who studies hurricanes. Ginis cautions that a hurricane can form in the Caribbean and move up to New England in fewer than 24 hours. Forecasts will likely be able to predict that a few days ahead of time, but time will be of the essence. And with the likelihood of more storms than usual, residents need to pay close attention.
Steve Kass, a spokesman at the R.I. Emergency Management Agency, said the agency reacted to NOAA’s prediction the same way it reacts at the start of every hurricane season, which officially began June 1 and ends November 30.
“We always plan for the worse. You can’t do anything else,” Kass said.
That includes positioning emergency supplies around the state ahead of every season and conducting ongoing training exercises with local first responders. The agency also holds ongoing discussions with its federal counterparts to coordinate a potential response to a hurricane.
In early June the agency brought together first responders, and state and federal officials for its annual hurricane conference. About 300 people attended, a record Kass said. He attributed the attendance in part to heightened interest after the March floods.
So why don’t more businesses pay attention?
Adamo said many lack time. Especially for smaller businesses, time away from the shop translates into less revenue and many small-business owners don’t see the need to plan for a disaster.
“They’re thinking, ‘Well I rolled through the floods a couple months ago [and] I did OK. I guess I’ll do OK again,’ ” Adamo said.
That’s a dangerous attitude say people who spend their days studying the effects of a hurricane. Vallee said Narragansett Bay serves as a sort of funnel. When wind from a hurricane whips up the ocean the tidal surge races up Narragansett Bay toward Providence and Portsmouth, causing rivers to rise and shorelines to flood.
“The coastline better know what’s coming,” Vallee said.
The average hurricane moves through Rhode Island at 33 mph said Vallee, meaning it would take about 12 hours to cross the state. Slower hurricanes that stall over the state can dump rain at an intense rate that overwhelms rivers. Faster storms bring intense winds that may knock down trees and power lines and send debris flying.
Even with all the dire predictions, Lenny Giuliano, the meteorologist at the R.I. Department of Environmental Management, worries that no one is listening.
“Is everybody really thinking about it right now? Probably not,” he said. •