A record-breaking start to the holiday shopping season has given retailers the green light to expect high consumer demand through the end of the year, observers say.
Retail businesses emerged stronger than ever from this year’s Black Friday weekend, the National Retail Federation announced on Nov. 28, with 200.4 million Americans shopping in person or online during the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday.
This figure topped the previous record of 196.7 million shoppers just one year ago and blew past the federation’s initial prediction of 182 million shoppers and it was higher than the 189.6 million in 2019, just months before the COVID-19 pandemic struck.
With inflation and other financial stressors hanging over consumers in addition to recent shifts in the public perception of Black Friday, local business leaders were also well aware that a strong turnout wasn't a sure bet.
“We often don’t know what to expect, particularly this year, with all the doom and gloom people were forecasting,” said Domenic Schiavone, general manager of the Warwick Mall.
Schiavone says the shopping center was "at capacity" for 98% of the shopping hours on Black Friday and remained bustling for the remainder of the weekend. It gave him and others optimism for the month ahead before Christmas. Schiavone says even the mall’s more cautious tenants are “kind of predicting that if Black Friday is any indication, it should be a good season.
Kristen Regine, a professor of marketing at Johnson & Wales University, notes that retailers will get an extra helping hand from the calendar this year – a full five weekends of shopping between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
The final Saturday before Christmas – called Super Saturday or Panic Saturday – tends to be a big revenue-generating day for retailers.
John Zilliken, general manager at Brookfield Properties, which owns Providence Place, is counting on that extra weekend and other local events to provide a big boost.
“People do procrastinate, and I think those weekends [leading up to Christmas] will be very, very busy,” Zilliken said. “And then at Providence Place, I think we may actually have our busiest weekend the weekend of the Army-Navy game,” which will take place at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on Dec. 9.
Between the college football rivalry game and crowds coming into the city for its upcoming WaterFire lighting, “we actually may have three more Thanksgiving weekend-type weekends, as far as traffic is concerned," he said.
There were some challenges on Black Friday at the Providence mall when pro-Palestinian demonstrators held a protest outside, but Zilliken says it didn't seem to impact shopper turnout.
Despite persistent economic pressures that would usually have the public tightening purse strings, Regine says indications are that U.S. consumer culture around the holidays won't easily change.
“People will go out of their way to make sure they’re buying gifts for their family and loved ones,” she said. “They’ll make concessions.”
Indeed, crowds and traffic backups at Wrentham Village Premium Outlets across the border in Massachusetts drew heavy news coverage. Meanwhile, the owners of Providence Place mall reported a "very exciting Black Friday."
NRF data indicates that shoppers aren't letting loose with their money. On Thanksgiving weekend, consumers spent an average of $321.41, down slightly from $325.44 last year, NRF says.
The enduring popularity of Black Friday itself as a shopping day has emerged despite changing business and consumer patterns. The days of shoppers lining up outside stores on Thanksgiving night and attacking store aisles in hopes of snagging the best deals are largely in the not-so-distant past, Regine says.
Black Friday, as Americans once envisioned it, has “kind of morphed,” Regine said. “You’ll hear it referred to as Black November. Retailers are starting early. On average Black Friday is still successful, but people aren't breaking down doors and waiting in parking lots all night long.”
In addition to sales starting early, stores are typically offering the same deals online as they are in their brick-and-mortar locations.
“I think what we’ve see is a transition with how retailers have responded to e-commerce,” Schiavone said, with big-box stores often offering their full range of products in stores and online, and some offering online ordering with free, in-store pickup to simultaneously encourage foot traffic.
Some consumers may have been holding back for other shopping opportunities, such as the annual Small Business Saturday Shop RI event at the Crowne Plaza Providence-Warwick, where more local retailers than ever participated.
While notoriously aggressive shopping on Black Friday has been dialed back, Schiavone says shoppers harbor nostalgia for the day as a kickoff to the holiday season.
“I think that people enjoy getting into the holiday spirit,” he said. “Life is demanding, and there are a lot of challenges … There’s something to be said not only the nostalgia but the social interaction of doing things for the holiday.”
