PROVIDENCE – Modeling on COVID-19 released by Gov. Gina M. Riamondo Saturday shows that hospitalizations in the state – a key measurement of the coronavirus’ impact – have peaked, but uncertainty remains about how quickly the numbers will decline.
Raimondo said at her daily briefing that the trend line of coronavirus-related hospital admissions could play out two ways: a sustained, gradually downward curve or a plateau that lasts for weeks.
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She said that in other states past their peaks, such as in Massachusetts, where hospitalizations haven’t yet declined significantly, the coronavirus hasn’t followed a predictable course.
The state’s new projections, depicted in graphs Raimondo made public Saturday, indicated that the trend of hospitalizations would decline from a peak average of about 330 to either about 290 daily or about 150 daily – or somewhere in between – over the next several weeks.
“The truth is we’re not exactly sure if we will have a sustain plateau with eventual decline or more a traditional bell curve,” Raimondo said. “What we do know is that it’s likely to be one of these two courses and it’s not likely to start moving upward again.”
She acknowledged the modeling is “highly imperfect” and that there could be “blips” day to day in the coming weeks, but she added, “we’re in the business of looking at a trend, the average over several days.”
Before Raimondo’s briefing, the R.I. Department of Health said cases of COVID-19 in Rhode Island increased by 327 on Saturday, and there were 17 more deaths related to the coronavirus.
That brings the total number of COVID-19-related deaths in the state to 296. The total positive cases in Rhode Island since the pandemic started stands at 9,289.
Meanwhile, the number of people hospitalized because of the coronavirus was 333 on Saturday, down 19 people from the day before. (The Department of Health had released a lower number earlier in the day but later revised it.) However, COVID-19 patients in intensive care units rose from 76 to 80, and people on ventilators increased from 51 to 54.
Hospitals in Rhode island discharged 531 COVID-19 patients since the previous data update midday Friday.
The state said it had conducted 3,280 tests on Friday, bringing the total number of tests conducted during the health crisis to 69,928 – with 60,639 coming back negative.
While sounding upbeat about the state’s projections, Raimondo had a warning Saturday: The numbers could jump if people start disregarding social distancing guidelines and prohibitions on gatherings.
And that, in turn, could delay the May 8 lifting of the state’s stay-at-home order, she said, noting that other governors in the region have extended such orders.
The governor acknowledged that she was “pretty worried” about the good weather this weekend.
“We have not started a decline,” Raimondo said. “We are still losing people every day to this virus, so we are not out of the woods yet. So I want to remind everybody that the stay-at-home order is very much still in effect.
“We’ve all sacrificed so much,” she said. “Hang in there with me.”
Raimondo said trending data shows that the trajectory for hospitalizations flattened twice in April – two weeks after she ordered restaurants and bars closed, and two weeks after she issued a stay-at-home order.
“If in two weeks from today, we see a spike that leads to people getting sicker, it’s because we went out this weekend and got together when we really shouldn’t,” she said.
Raimondo said she will take this apparent two-week delay between actions and effects into account when reopening the economy.
“It’s why I’m taking such as gradual approach to reopening the economy. It’s why when we start to reopen the economy, we cannot flip the switch. We have to turn the dial.”
Raimondo also formally announced the creation of a $1.5 million program to provide some relief to low-income renter who are behind on rent payments.
The program will issue up to $5,000 grant to those who qualify to help pay past-due rental payments and other fees.
“This is not money to make next month’s rent,” she said. “This is if you’re behind and facing potential eviction.”
Raimondo directed people to housinghelpri.com to learn about the eligibility requirements and to apply. Or those who need help can call 211, the United Way help line, she said.
She said R.I. Commerce Corp. worked with R.I. Housing to obtain funding from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The governor also praised more than 20 mortgage lenders who do business in Rhode Island for agreeing to a 90-day forbearance period on mortgage payments and other measures aimed at helping customers struggling financially during the new coronavirus.
“You’re doing the right thing for the right reasons in the middle of a crisis, and you are saving so many Rhode Islanders from financial ruin,” she said.
(Updated the number of people hospitalized, and recast the lead sentence.)
