CLICK HERE. / " title="RHODE ISLAND IS SEEING THE "light at the end of the recession tunnel," according to URI economist Leonard Lardaro. For a larger version of this image, CLICK HERE. /"/>SOUTH KINGSTOWN – “At long last, we are beginning to see the ‘light at the end of the recession tunnel’,” University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro said, as his economic index for July registered a value in the expansion range for the second consecutive month.
Rhode Island scored 58 in July on the Current Conditions Index, compared with 17 as of July last year; a value above 50 indicates expansion. A reading of zero would mean no indicators improved compared with a year earlier, while 100 would mean all 12 improved. For July, Rhode Island saw a gain in seven of 12 national and local economic indicators.
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Retail sales rose for the sixth consecutive month, following improved U.S. consumer sentiment; Rhode Island manufacturing (wage and total hours) also rebounded in July and work force indicators such as labor force, benefit exhaustions and new claims bettered.
The last time Lardaro’s Current Conditions Index registered two consecutive expansion values was at the end of 2006, he noted. Nevertheless, Lardaro warned that the slowdown of the national economy may negatively affect Rhode Island and held off confirming that the Ocean State is officially in the clear.
“Once again the Current Conditions Index value is 58, which is consistent with expansion. Rhode Island might be in the earliest stages of a recovery, but I want to see more data before making a recovery call since the national economy is slowing,” said Lardaro.
Indicators showing no improvement included employment services jobs and private service-producing employment. And while the unemployment rate decline, Lardaro counted it as a negative, since the decline was in part thanks to a drop in the labor force size. Government employment fell 0.5 percent due to a decrease in local non-education employment and fewer census-related jobs.
Single-unit permits continued its “roller coaster behavior,” dropping 4.5 percent from a year ago; Lardaro observed that “in spite of declining mortgage rates it is not clear whether building momentum will return in the coming months, based on debt and slowing national economic activity.”
I’ll have what he’s drinking. I’m glad someone is confident. With unemployment at near record levels, businesses fleeing the state and certain candidates proposing tax increases in order to support an already bloated, overloaded pension based budget, this state is nowhere near a recovery mode. I don’t care how much or how many times you play with the charts and figures in order to prove your point. Set ’em up Joe. Another round for everyone in the house.
Despite the good professor’s optimism, the Rhode Island economic climate is still in the tank.While banks have been criticized for non lending, the fact of the matter is that while banks are flush with cash,there is no demand from RI small businesses for capital to expand.Unfortunately,should a recovery take place, does not mean that Rhode Island’s unemployed will be rehired as businesses out of necessity in order for economic survival will continue to cut cost.The economic development policy advanced by the best and brightest on the EDC board is abhorrent. Unless of course, your one of there favored Rhode Island companies that receive property tax abbatements, corporate income tax credits, tax increment financing, low-interest loans and loan guarantees all at the expense of Rhode Island taxpayers and the small business community.