Beige Book: N.E. improves in July and August, but uncertainty lingers

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY in the New England region was said to have improved modestly in recent months, but contacts in the region said that they feel uncertainty about the region's economic future, according to the most recent Beige Book report from the Federal Reserve.
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY in the New England region was said to have improved modestly in recent months, but contacts in the region said that they feel uncertainty about the region's economic future, according to the most recent Beige Book report from the Federal Reserve.

PROVIDENCE – Economic activity in New England continued to improve modestly in July and August, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report released Tuesday.

The economic outlook in the region remained “highly uncertain” to respondents, but more contacts were expecting at least mild improvement than increased losses.

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The report is based on a survey of businesses in the region on or before Aug. 24.

Employment changes in the region were mixed, with some industries reporting that they hired back workers while many others reported that their workers remained furloughed or permanently laid off. Some manufacturing respondents in the region said they were considering ending hazard pay for workers, but one respondent noted that it will not due to the fear of damaging morale. Staffing firms in the area also confirmed that hazard pay for some jobs in New England has already been eliminated. 

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Of the 10 manufacturing respondents in the Beige Book issued Tuesday, economic experiences were said to diverge “markedly.” Some respondents reported growth year over year, while others reported dramatic declines. One manufacturer said it has increased capital expenditures due to discounts on capital goods to position itself to take market share when the economy recovers. Most contacts in the industry told the Fed that they expected their current performance to continue in the near term.

Commercial real estate contacts said they expected activity to remain flat or decline for the rest of 2020. Their outlook for the region in 2021 was generally described as uncertain, with some in the industry expressing concern that commercial bankruptcies and foreclosures will accelerate without renewed fiscal stimulus measures. Despite this, the market for warehouse and lab space in the region was described as “robust.”

Residential real estate markets in the region were said to have improved in July, following slow sales in the spring due to the pandemic. The market continued to favor sellers due to decreased inventory.

Retail and tourism respondents in the region said that the pandemic continued to cause major disruptions in their industries.

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