PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island has recovered almost 60% of the jobs lost in the COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns of the spring, but the remainder will take several years to reappear, according to an economist who is advising state leaders.
The sudden shock of joblessness, which reached its peak in April, then led to a swift rebound in May and June as businesses reopened, according to Michael Lynch, associate director of U.S. Economics for IHS Markit.
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The state is likely to see a drawn out recovery over several years, he told state budget officials, as the pace of rehiring has slowed.
Between February and April, Rhode Island had employment counts drop by nearly 100,000 positions, he said.
At its peak, at 18% unemployment in April, Rhode Island was among the hardest-hit in the nation, he said.
“The state features as one of the severely impacted states in the country, for that February to April period,” Lynch said. It was the fourth-highest for peak unemployment.
When the reopening began in May, employment picked up sharply. The pace of new employment reached its peak in June, he said. After that, the pace of monthly gains has decelerated.
By September, the state’s unemployment rate had improved to 10.5%, but at that level, it’s still double-digits.
The timetable for recovery will long and drawn out. Over the past five months, the state’s employment has recovered about 60% of the lost positions. But it will regain the rest over several years. “It will be much more drawn out than what we’ve seen so far.”
Accommodations and food services, retail and health services have been the sectors that have regained positions most quickly, which also mirrors the same industries most impacted.
Through fiscal 2022, IHS Markit projects that employment growth will continue but at a steadily decelerating pace over the next seven quarters.
Mary MacDonald is a staff writer for the PBN. Contact her at macdonald@pbn.com.
