PROVIDENCE – Rhode Island’s current conditions index value was 75 in January, level with its value one year prior and 17 points higher than December’s value, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro Monday.
A value above 50 indicates expansion and a value below 50 indicates economic contraction.
In his introduction to the index, Lardaro noted that recent revisions of historical employment data in Rhode Island were “the most bizarre revisions … I have seen in a long time.”
The revisions included the lowering of previous payroll employment by 7,300 workers in December 2018. The labor force had also been revised down for every month since January 2017, among other changes.
Lardaro said the changes in state employment data resulted in recalculated CCI scores for the months in 2018, improving many of the previous month’s scores.
For instance, the months of February 2018 and May 2018 were revised to the maximum CCI value of 100, among other adjustments.
Despite the oddity of the revisions effect on the CCI and lingering weakness in indicators that began in March, Lardaro said 2019 started on a positive note for Rhode Island. Nine of the 12 CCI indicators improved year over year.
Read PBN’s recent coverage of state employment figures here.
Lardaro also said it is unlikely that CCI value will increase year over year often in 2019.
The revisions also added “much better understanding of actual changes over the past few years,” according to Lardaro.
Below are January’s year-over-year individual indicator changes that comprise the CCI:
- Government employment increased 0.7 percent
- United States consumer sentiment declined 4.4 percent
- Single-unit permits declined 6.8 percent
- Retail sales increased 1.2 percent
- Employment services jobs increased 0.8 percent
- Private service-producing employment increased 0.5 percent
- Manufacturing hours declined 7.1 percent
- Manufacturing wage increased 1.8 percent
- The Rhode Island labor force increased 0.1 percent
- Benefit exhaustions declined 22.1 percent
- New claims declined 4.8 percent
- The state unemployment rate declined 0.4 percent
Chris Bergenheim is the PBN web editor. Email him at Bergenheim@PBN.com.
