PROVIDENCE – The state’s Current Conditions Index hit its highest mark of 2019 in December, spiking to 92 for a 34-point jump from the year prior, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro.
A value greater than 50 indicates economic expansion, while less than 50 means contraction.
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Lardaro was optimistic in a report released Monday, pointing out that December’s CCI was the highest since June 2018. The value also marked the third time in 2019 that the state’s CCI exceeded its year-prior value.
“It should be noted that all three of these ‘beats’ occurred in the second half of the year,” Lardaro wrote. “Clearly, Rhode Island recovered from the weak patch it experienced during the first half of 2019.”
A number of the 12 indicators used to measure economic performance showed “a great deal of strength,” Lardaro noted.
New claims for unemployment insurance decreased again in December for the seventh time in the last eight months, the report said.
Employment service jobs rose also. Improvements in the two indicators “suggest a trend toward higher employment, accompanied by fewer layoffs in the coming months, necessary elements if Rhode Island is to sustain its recent momentum,” Lardaro said.
Retail sales, which turned in strong performances for much of 2019, rose in December as well, while manufacturing hours fell for the fifteenth consecutive month.
Year-end data revisions will reveal the most accurate snapshot of the state’s 2019 economic activity, especially since months that showed surges are also the ones most likely to be revised, Lardaro pointed out.
“I continue to hope that existing values prove to be accurate and the underlying strength we are witnessing at present remains intact,” he said. “I am a bit skeptical, though, since there were large downward revisions to the national labor market data.”
CCI indicator changes year over year in December:
- Government employment increased by 0.3%
- U.S. consumer sentiment increased by 1.1%
- Single-use permits grew by 39.2%
- Retail sales increased by 10.2%
- Employment services jobs grew by 8.1%
- Private service-producing employment was up by 2.4%
- Total manufacturing hours dropped by 7.7%
- The manufacturing wage increased 0.9%
- The labor force grew by 0.4%
- Benefit exhaustions fell by 4.4%
- New claims showed a 3.7% decrease
- The unemployment rate fell by 0.5%
Elizabeth Graham is a PBN staff writer. You may reach her at Graham@PBN.com.
