Pop. shift to guide redistricting

In the last decade, Newport County lost 2,500 residents, nearly 3 percent of its population, while across Narragansett Bay, Washington County added more than 3,000 people, according to 2010 census figures.
To the north, Warwick’s population shrunk by 3,100 during the same period, while nearby Cranston and Providence both grew.
These and other shifts in where Rhode Islanders live have political consequences that are now being teased out as the state, like the rest of the country, redraws its congressional and legislative district lines.
When voters head to the polls next fall, some of the lawmakers who have represented them for years will no longer appear on their ballots.
Some cities and towns with multiple representatives at the Statehouse will lose one, while others will gain. In terms of clout, there will be winners and losers.
“Anytime you draw that line, there is always someone concerned about it,” said Kimball Brace of Election Data Services, the company hired by the General Assembly to run the redistricting. “This time, what you have is a fundamental population shift in the state. That is triggering change where people may not view change being necessary.”
That population shift, a reversal from previous decades, is a general move north and west within the state, away from the coast and toward Providence.
Unlike 10 years ago, when the state cut 25 House seats and 12 Senate seats as part of the redistricting, no legislative seats will be directly lost in this round of changes.
And unlike Massachusetts, which is wrestling with the loss of a congressional seat, Rhode Island will not be losing any representation in Washington.
But several state lawmakers could see their constituencies shift underneath them.
“It’s early in the process, but looking at the numbers, I think the East Bay region could lose a [House] seat, either to South County or Providence,” said Rep. Daniel Reilly, R-Portsmouth, whose district is in shrinking Newport County. “I think it’s fair to say everyone will shift northward.”
If Newport’s loss of population illustrated the overarching trend of northwesterly movement, Warwick’s population decline of nearly 4 percent was more of a surprise.
Rep. Joseph Trillo, R-Warwick, one of the 18 members of the Commission on Reapportionment, the group charged with overseeing the redistricting process, will be watching how any proposed lines will impact his district.
“It’s always a concern, because we don’t want to lose any seats,” Trillo said. “I know I have more constituents than the average, so I am confident that we can hold all the seats. But we really won’t know until we work it all out.” When political lines move and communities pick up or lose representatives, the consequences can be economic as well as political.
Not only are many government funding formulas based on population, but a particular House or Senate member looking out for a community can in some cases make a decisive difference in securing state funding for a project or not.
Daniel Beardsley, executive director of the Rhode Island League of Cities and Towns, said he has not sensed at this early stage any concern from local officials about potential losses of representation or funding, but is awaiting the first draft of the redistricting plan.
Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian does expect to see changes in local districts, but is optimistic the city will not lose any state lawmakers or state funding.
“We lost about 3,000 people in the last 10 years, the majority connected with homes taken by the airport,” Avedisian said. “It is of concern to us, and we will have to redraw our precinct lines, which will have a cost, but most of the grant money is through individual departments, not necessarily earmarks. There is not a lot of discretionary spending right now anyway.”
Although population shifts may play the biggest role in redistricting changes, they are not the only factor being considered.
The law authorizing the work of the reapportionment commission says districts “shall be as compact in territory as possible and, to the extent practicable, shall reflect natural, historical, geographical, municipal and other political lines, as well as the right of all Rhode Islanders to fair representation and equal access to the political process.”
Politics also plays a direct part in the process, since any new district lines will need to be approved by lawmakers who could benefit or suffer from them the next time they run for re-election. Protection of incumbents is often a trait of many redistricting plans.
And race is a consideration.
Under federal law, any district lines that limit the ability of minority groups to elect their preferred candidate can be challenged in court.
That makes drawing new district lines a potential minefield and is part of the reason the state has set aside $1.5 million for redistricting – $692,420 to hire Brace’s firm and $807,580 for potential legal fees – in this year’s budget. As for what issues could prove thorny this time around, Brace said it’s nearly impossible to predict and depends on the political currents of the moment.
“It is a variety of different issues. Sometime it is special-interest groups, other times it is [commission] members or neighborhood groups,” Brace said. “It varies depending on what people are active politically.”
Even though this redistricting will not involve the loss of any seats in Congress, as the country’s population continues to move south and west, Rhode Island’s two congressional districts may not be safe for much longer.
Brace said the most recent projections indicate Rhode Island will be reduced to one district after the 2020 census.
Rhode Island also has its own peculiarities that could complicate redistricting.
One of them is the predicament on Block Island, where the town of New Shoreham lists hundreds more registered voters than permanent residents.
At the first meeting of the reapportionment commission earlier this month, member Ray Rickman, a former Providence state representative, asked if there are any ways to compensate for what appeared to be people who live elsewhere registering to vote on Block Island.
Asked about the issue after the hearing, co-chairman Stephen Uzzi, D-Johnston, said it may be more of a voter-fraud issue than an issue for redistricting.
Before any new lines actually go on paper, Brace and the reapportionment commission will host six public hearings in different areas around the state and another five at the Statehouse to gather feedback.
Election Data Services also has set up an office in the basement of the Statehouse and has created a website, www.riredistricting.org, for anyone looking to gather information or make comments.
After all the hearings, Brace said he intends to draw several different district maps (there were five last time) and then take them out on another round of hearings stretching into December. The commission’s goal is to submit a recommended plan to the legislature by Jan. 15.
When the new plans do come out, even lawmakers in communities with some of the largest population losses said they expect changes to be relatively subtle, such as having legislators already sharing communities adding or subtracting a precinct or two in different places.
“Anything is possible, but from a numbers standpoint, I don’t see a major loss of representation,” said Sen. Louis DiPalma, D-Middletown, about changes to his Newport County district. &#8226