Policymakers in countries where there are severe outbreaks of COVID-19 are doing what they can to slow the spread and “flatten the curve.” But so far, there hasn’t been much global coordination, raising the risk of a second wave of contamination even after individual countries halt the virus’s advance.
That’s the dilemma facing China and South Korea now. Both countries appear to have halted or slowed the internal spread of the new coronavirus and are beginning to worry about contaminated travelers from abroad setting off a new outbreak – including by their citizens returning home.
As long as the virus exists in any country, it can reenter those that have slowed it down – or even ones that eventually eradicate it.
Efforts to prevent a second wave of contagion might prompt countries to put up more borders to international travel and trade. This would compound and prolong the adverse economic impact.
The only effective long-term solution against the coronavirus is a global solution – which requires a coordinated response.
Dozens of countries are taking a variety of strong measures to fight the spread of the new coronavirus, from social distancing and mass quarantines to severe restrictions on the movement of people and goods.
A global, synchronized lockdown would be more effective.
But there’s been little or no coordination, the timing has varied considerably, and the piecemeal manner in which restrictions have been put in place demonstrates that lessons are not being shared, which has made it harder to defeat the virus. Moreover, the lack of coordination among countries when imposing travel bans has led to diplomatic tensions that will only make matters worse.
Even in the hunt for a vaccine there is a clear lack of international coordination. Furthermore, most countries seem to be adopting a nationalistic rather than a collaborative approach that could limit a potential vaccine’s effectiveness in ending the pandemic, with the possibility that each country will favor its own citizens over others.
While these efforts are slowing the spread of the coronavirus in some places, it continues to worsen in others such as the U.S., Europe and Iran, which demonstrate that they are not enough to eradicate the threat completely. And that means successful countries will have to impose or continue severe and costly constraints on international travel – and those that have managed to avoid an outbreak, such as Russia, must continue to keep their restrictions in place. In Russia’s case, closing border crossings to China has severely hurt trade.
If many countries impose such restrictions simultaneously, everyone suffers, adding to the already high economic costs of the coronavirus with no end in sight.
The world needs to coordinate in three key ways:
• Agree on a two-week global lockdown across all countries, even those not severely affected by COVID-19. Several countries are currently imposing such mass quarantines, with mixed success. A global, synchronized lockdown would be more effective.
• The World Health Organization should lead global efforts to find an effective vaccine and treatments for COVID-19, ensuring they are widely available. The group could help disseminate research findings quickly and coordinate activities to avoid duplication.
• Restrictions on international travel and trade should be implemented in cooperation with other countries. Rather than nationalistic restrictions that benefit one country at the expense of others, the cost of the needed restrictions could be distributed among all trade partners in a fair manner that motivates all governments to participate in these painful economic measures.
Global coordination has worked well in past crises. For example, in 2014, former President Barack Obama took the lead in the global fight against the Ebola virus, which affected several countries in Africa. American leadership played a crucial role in mobilizing and coordinating the global fight that ultimately contained the epidemic.
Nader Habibi is the Henry J. Leir Professor of Practice in the Economics of the Middle East at Brandeis University’s Crown Center for Middle East Studies. Distributed by The Associated Press.