Home Economy Economic Activity Lardaro: ‘Painfully weak’ economic data suggests R.I. is in a recession

Lardaro: ‘Painfully weak’ economic data suggests R.I. is in a recession

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PBN Staff

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10/14/2025

Lardaro-1-1-1 — UNIVERSITY OF Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro concluded Monday in his monthly Current Conditions Index report Rhode Island is in a recession. / PBN FILE PHOTO/MICHAEL SALERNO

PROVIDENCE – After wrestling with the possibility for months, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro now says his monthly Current Conditions Index report suggests Rhode Island is in a recession. The index had a neutral value 33 in August, down from 50 posted in July, Lardaro said on Monday. A CCI value

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PROVIDENCE – After wrestling with the possibility for months, University of Rhode Island economist and professor Leonard Lardaro now says his monthly Current Conditions Index report suggests Rhode Island is in a recession. The index had a neutral value 33 in August, down from 50 posted in July, Lardaro said on Monday. A CCI value above 50 indicates an economic expansion while a value below 50 indicates economic contraction. Lardaro said the CCI has been unable to move into the expansion range since last November and has consistently fallen below last year's numbers, largely with contraction- range values. Added with the ongoing disappointing performances of most CCI indicators, along with other variables not included in the index, he concludes the state has fallen into a recession. “While our economy has had its ups and downs over the last year or so, starting last December, we have been unable to attain or sustain any broadly based economic momentum,” Lardaro said. “While some indicators have shown favorable values at times, and that is also true this month, as a group, this has not been the case.” Only four of the 12 indicators improved year over year in August. While three were relatively strong, retail sales, total manufacturing hours and manufacturing wage, Lardaro said most others were “painfully weak.” Benefit exhaustions, what Lardaro said reflect longer-term unemployment, rose by 30.7%. New claims, which are related to layoffs, increased by 8.8%. Employment-service jobs, what Lardaro calls a leading labor indicator that deals with future employment, was flat. “Even government employment fell, a rare occurrence, driven by declines in federal and state employment,” Lardaro said. Single-unit permits, related to new home construction, declined 9.1% and the state’s Labor force also fell, which Lardaro said “actually made Rhode Island’s 4.6% unemployment rate look better than it actually is.” U.S. consumer sentiment also declined at a double-digit rate, and private service-producing employment barely managed to rise 0.6%. Year-over-year CCI indicators in August:

Employment-service jobs same as July.

Government employment decreased by 0.9%.

Labor force decreased by 0.4%.

Total manufacturing hours increased by 2.6%.

Manufacturing wages increased by 1.7%.

New unemployment claims increased by 8.6%.

Private-service-producing employment increased by 0.6%.

Retail sales increased by 4.5%.

Single-unit permits decreased by 9.1%.

Unemployment benefit exhaustions increased by 30.7%.

Unemployment rate increased by 0.1%.

U.S. consumer sentiment decreased 14.6%.