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NEW YORK – The latest surge in U.S. coronavirus cases appears to be much larger than the two previous ones, and it is all but certain to get worse – a lot worse. But experts say there are also reasons to think the nation is better able to deal with the virus this time. “We’re
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‘Right now because of the exponential growth, throw the kitchen sink at this.’ BROOK NICHOLS, Boston University School of Public Health professorIn addition, a vaccine appears to be on the horizon, perhaps around the end of the year, with Pfizer this week reporting early results showing that its experimental shots are a surprising 90% effective at preventing the disease. And there’s a change pending in the White House, with President-elect Joe Biden pledging to rely on a highly respected set of medical advisers and carry out a detailed coronavirus plan that experts say includes the kind of measures that will be necessary to bring the surge under control. Biden pledged during the campaign to be guided by science, make testing free and widely available, hire thousands of health workers to undertake contact-tracing, and instruct the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to provide clear, expert advice. “We are already seeing encouraging signs from President-elect Biden with regard to his handling of COVID-19,” said Dr. Kelly Henning, a veteran epidemiologist who heads the Bloomberg Philanthropies’ public health programs. While the first surge in the Northeast caught many Americans unprepared and cut a deadly swath through nursing homes, the second crest along the nation’s Southern and Western rim was attributed mostly to heedless behavior, particularly among young adults over Memorial Day and July Fourth, and hot weather that sent people indoors, where the virus spreads more easily. The fall surge similarly has been blamed largely on cold weather driving people inside and disdain for masks and social distancing, stoked by President Donald Trump and other politicians. The short-term outlook is grim, with colder weather and Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s ahead. Generations of family members gathering indoors for meals for extended periods “is not a recipe for anything good,” Hanage said. Meanwhile, the next two months will see a lame-duck Congress and a president who might be even less inclined than before to enact disease-control measures. Those voted out of office or no longer worried about reelection for at least two more years “are not going to be motivated to do a fantastic job,” Hanage said. Experts are increasingly alarmed about the virus’s resurgence in places such as Rhode Island and Massachusetts, which have seen a dramatic rise in cases since Labor Day. Mass. Republican Gov. Charlie Baker is warning that the health care system could become overwhelmed this winter, and he recently ordered restaurants to stop table service, required many businesses to close by 9:30 p.m., and instructed residents to stay home between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. R.I. Gov. Gina M. Raimondo has taken similar steps, setting closing times at 10 p.m. on weekdays and 10:30 p.m. on weekends. Brooke Nichols, a professor and infectious-disease mathematical modeler at Boston University School of Public Health, said those actions don’t go far enough. “Right now because of the exponential growth, throw the kitchen sink at this, and then you can do it for not as long,” Nichols said. Meanwhile, political leaders in a number of newer coronavirus hot spots are doing less. In hard-hit South Dakota, Gov. Kristi Noem has made it clear she will not institute a mask requirement and has voiced doubt in health experts who say face coverings prevent infections from spreading. “It would be simplistic to say it’s a Red-vs.-a-Blue experience, but it does kind of go along party lines of whether people took it seriously, tried to prevent it and took painful measures, versus those who said, ‘Let it rip,’ ” said Dr. Howard Markel, a public health historian at the University of Michigan.
